Vladimir Putin is back as President of Russia. Prohibited by the Constitution from serving for more than two consecutive terms, over the last four years he has been serving as Prime Minister.
The world is facing too many challenges to afford a new ‘cold war’- Joseph Vella Bonnici
Mr Putin is the face of 20th century Russia. In 2007, he was nominated as the world’s most influential person by Time magazine. Two years later, Forbes ranked him second after Barak Obama.
Mr Putin’s return (many believe he never really went away) was marred by accusations of vote rigging. Still, he obtained a lower vote (64 per cent) than in 2004 (72 per cent).
Many Russians are not enthusiastic to have him at the helm for at least another six years. Thousands of protesters, mostly young, internet-savvy urbanites, who yearn for deeper and faster reforms, have taken to the streets. This is no Arab Spring, no Orange Revolution. The fact that the police have generally restrained themselves from using force to squash these protests is a sign that things are changing.
Since Mr Putin first came to power in 2000, Russian society has been going through a process of rapid change. At the time, Russia’s economy was in shambles, with much of the country’s wealth usurped by a few oligarchs and the mafia. Mr Putin helped drive economic growth (even though its economy remains unduly dependent on the export of oil and gas). Separatist unrest was the Achilles’ heel of his presidential tenure.
He was seen favourably in the West. He backed George Bush’s “war on terror” and consented that US forces fly through Russian airspace during the Afghan war. Now he seems intent to distant himself from the West and adopted a strong anti-US stance in his presidential campaign. This could have been his way of counteracting the criticism of his arch rivals, the Communists, who accuse him of being too soft with the West.
There is little doubt that Mr Putin feels let down by the West. In particular, he is disappointed that despite Russia agreeing to a new START Treaty on the reduction of missiles, Nato and the US still intend to go ahead with the missile defence shield in Europe. He snubbed the G8 meeting held at Camp David last week. The official reason given is that he is too busy putting his own government in place. Maybe it was his way of expressing his irritation that a Nato meeting was to be held in Chicago at the same time.
What is for sure is that Mr Putin wants Russia to be treated as an equal partner. During a recent military parade celebrating victory over Nazi Germany, he promised to give Russia its deserved place on the world stage.
There is still a lot of nostalgia in Russia for the Soviet empire. This point was emphasised by Michael Nosov during a roundtable discussion on Russia organised jointly by the Russian Centre for Science and Culture in Malta and the University of Malta.
Prof. Nosov, who is the deputy director of research at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that it was unfair for the West to group Russia with China, India and Brazil (Bric) for these countries have little in common.
He noted that Russia is very sensitive to the Middle East situation and is concerned that the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria would have a domino effect that would destabilise the whole region. He confirmed that Russia believes that the UN is being hijacked by the US to push its own hegemonic agenda. Old mentalities, he insisted, die hard.
Prof. Nosov gave an insider’s view of Russia today and insisted that the West needs to look at developments from a changed perspective.
Russian leaders still suffer from a “siege mentality” arising out of its history. Democracy is still in its infancy and the country lacks the necessary institutional set-up. Many of the country’s laws are obsolete and this does not help the judiciary to be autonomous.
In Russia, the citizen is for the state and not vice-versa.
Russia’s membership in the World Trade Organisation, which comes into effect this year, will oblige the country to play by internationally accepted rules. This will help the economy, encourage foreign investment and slow down the outflow of capital from the country.
Referring specifically to Russian-EU relations, Prof. Nosov emphasised that both sides have to work at building mutual trust. Many European leaders were brought up in the belief that “a good communist is a dead communist” and they too still harbour a deep fear of Russia. The lack of trust has resulted in summit meetings between the two being seen as “futile diplomatic exercises”.
Prof. Nosov claimed that the truth is that they share many common interests such as global warming, drug trafficking, energy supplies and visa free travel.
Russia and Mr Putin are at the crossroads. The way forward depends on how Russian society continues to evolve as well as on how the West seeks to contain Russia’s attempts to project itself as a global power. The world is facing too many challenges to afford a new “cold war”.
Over the last two decades, international relations have been primarily determined by economic power but in belligerent times what counts is military might. This is why the West and Russia have to learn how to live together.
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