The crisis in Ukraine is showing no signs of de-escalating and in a number of towns in the eastern part of the country armed pro-Russian separatists continue to occupy government buildings and defy the authorities in Kiev. There have also been incidents of violence between separatists and those who support Ukrainian unity.

Ukrainian troops have attempted to retake some of the buildings and on Friday launched a raid in the rebel stronghold of Slaviansk using military helicopters, one of which was shot down by the pro-Russian rebels, killing the pilot.

Russia still has 40,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and the agreement signed in Geneva two- and-a-half weeks ago between the US, EU, Russia and Ukraine has clearly collapsed. In a sign of how bad the situation really is, Ukraine’s President Oleksandr Turchynov said last week that the central government had effectively lost control over the situation in the country’s eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Turchynov also claimed that Russia was now eyeing six more regions in the country’s east and south and accused Russian-backed “saboteurs” of having received instructions from Moscow to destabilise the regions. He stressed that there existed a real threat of Russia starting a war against Ukraine.

In response to Russia’s behaviour, both the US and the EU last week announced that additional names had been added to their sanctions list; Washington added seven more Russians, while Brussels added 15 Russians and Ukrainians.

So far, such sanctions, where individuals are targeted in asset freezes and travel bans, have not managed, in the slightest way, to change Moscow’s conduct in Ukraine. It is clear, therefore, that if Russia continues to cause unrest and to threaten Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sanctions will have to be applied against key sectors of the Russian economy. This will also negatively affect Europe and the US, but Russia will suffer more.

The collapse of the Geneva agreement is indeed unfortunate; the pact presented an opportunity for the situation to calm down, for the violence to subside, for Russia and Ukraine to engage in direct talks and for the security concerns of all sides to be discussed in a level-headed manner. Sadly, Russia has once again shown that it cannot be trusted to keep its word, and that it has unfortunately chosen not to use its influence in the region in a positive manner.

In a sign of just how serious this situation is, Nato deputy secretary general Alexander Vershbow said on Thursday that Russia had now become the alliance’s adversary.

“Clearly, the Russians have declared Nato as an adversary, so we have to begin to view Russia no longer as a partner but as more of an adversary than a partner,” Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Russia said.

Such a statement more or less sums up just how Russia’s image has been transformed in Europe and the US as a result of its behaviour in Ukraine. This is a pity because the two sides have many global common interests and a new Cold War can only mean less cooperation on a whole range of issues, including for example, Syria, Iran, climate change and the fight against al-Qaeda.

There is no doubt that the collapse of the Geneva pact lies with Russia and Moscow’s claim that it has no control or influence over the separatists occupying official buildings in eastern Ukraine is pure nonsense. Unfortunately, everything so far points to Russia creating the conditions for an invasion to take place, which could very well lead to the partition of Ukraine.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin should weigh his options very carefully and should avoid painting himself into a corner. First of all, although Putin has so far not changed course over Ukraine, there have already been some costs to the Russian economy since this crisis began.

Western sanctions have led to €46 billion leaving the country in the first three months of this year and Standard & Poor’s has cut Russia’s credit rating. Sanctions imposed on key economic sectors would almost certainly lead Russia into recession.

Furthermore, an intervention in Ukraine would lead to a new Cold War in Europe and a long- drawn-out conflict in that country, which Russia can’t afford. There have been no mass spontaneous pro-Russian uprisings in most parts of south-eastern Ukraine, meaning that the majority of these people have no appetite for war or secession and would not welcome a Russian invasion.

The West, particularly, the EU, therefore needs to send out a strong message to all Ukrainians that it will continue to support them as they seek to transform their country into a modern European state.

We have to begin to view Russia no longer as a partner but as more of an adversary than a partner- Nato deputy secretary general

Unlike Russia, the EU can offer Ukrainians an attractive way of life and winning their hearts and minds is probably the best bulwark against Moscow. Ukraine only needs to look at Poland, its friend and neighbour, to see the remarkable transformation of this country ever since it joined the EU.

I still hope that Russia will adopt a common sense approach. There is no need for conflict and while one has to acknowledge that Moscow has some legitimate security concerns in Ukraine, its behaviour there is counterproductive, has made it a lot of enemies, risks isolating it, both economically and politically, and could drag it into a long drawn-out war which it cannot win.

No solution in Ukraine is possible without Russia, the EU and the US. The only sensible way forward for President Putin is to return to the negotiating table, respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and international law, and work towards a diplomatic solution with respects the rights of all Ukrainian citizens.