Crisis fatigue sets in particularly hard at Christmastime. Any news of protests or trouble elsewhere seems particularly ill-timed. When the crisis concerns a country like Ukraine, which has already been amply covered in the news in the past weeks, the sense that the news is irrelevant is all the greater.
Except that in this case it isn’t. What is happening in the Ukraine now will still be with us in the new year. No doubt about that. However, now is the time to make New Year resolutions. I would like to urge all Europeans to resolve to take Russia, the large shadow behind Ukraine’s current crisis, a bit more seriously than European institutions appear to have done so far.
By “a bit more seriously” what I mean is a stronger historical sense of Russia’s perspective. Not to justify it but to understand and acknowledge it better.
The current Ukraine crisis began when the country’s President, Victor Yanukovych, ended Ukraine’s negotiations on closer integration with the EU. He chose, instead, to promote ties with Russia. In return, he has obtained a financial bailout from Russia as well as favourable terms for cheap gas imports.
In the west of the country, which borders the EU, there were large street protests. At the beginning of the week itself there were 100,000 out in the streets.
This is that part of the country that historically had ties to the Austro-Hungarian empire. It looks at neighbours like Poland, of which Ukraine was once a part, and sees the difference in social development between the two countries over the last 25 years.
Poland, with its star hitched to EU membership, has advanced much more, economically and politically. Ukraine, its star hitched to Russia, is still seeing important national politicians end up in jail on various charges, although the strong suspicion is always that they are really political prisoners.
However, to say that Yanukovych is trampling over his people’s democratic will is to over-simplify the issue. The fact remains that, even now, in the east of the country, which borders Russia, Yanukovych retains important support.
Ukraine’s border identity, betwixt and between the EU and Russia, is reflected in its population’s divisions. The split on integration with the EU or alliance with Russia is reflected in Ukraine’s near geographic split.
Europe needs to consider Ukraine a special case and devise a more flexible approach to cooperation with it
Therefore, deciding what the popular will is cannot be a matter of simply counting votes in a referendum. Any decision one way or another is going to put pressure on an important fissure in Ukraine’s society.
Why is it that Russia is so reluctant to see Ukraine integrate with the EU? The quick answer, that it all has to do with the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s political despotism, is simplistic.
I suspect that any Russian President would be very wary of having Ukraine as an EU country. It is clear that Russia, for geostrategic interests, would like to have a buffer zone between it and the EU.
In Europe, it is Putin who has an aggressive reputation, mainly because of how he deals with internal dissent and because in the Middle East Russian foreign policy is, often, allied with different interests from those of Europe. It is important to remember, therefore, that in Russia it is the EU that is seen as the aggressive party. Memories of World War II apart, there is the expansion of Nato practically to Russia’s doorstep.
A quarter century or so ago, President George H.W. Bush had promised the then USSR’s leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, that EU integration in eastern Europe would not be accompanied by Nato membership. However, Bush’s successor, Bill Clinton, reneged on that agreement.
One can understand, therefore, why Russia would be extremely wary about any promises made on what Ukraine would or would not be party to, if it became an EU member. Apart from being distrustful, there is another consideration. Which European leader can give long-term promises nowadays, when so many leading Europeans are urging greater integration in the area of security and foreign policy?
It is my considered view, therefore, that Europe needs to consider Ukraine a special case and devise a more flexible approach to cooperation with it.
Such flexibility need not exclude intransigence when it comes to matters concerning political prisoners. On the contrary, the flexibility in one area might make Europe more influential in the other.
If one of Europe’s resolutions for 2014 is to grow on the international stage, then it cannot set itself up for failure. It must be tough on achievable targets but it should not attempt to achieve what is beyond reach.
I would like to take this opportunity to wish the editor, staff and readers of Times of Malta a Happy New Year.
John Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.