Iran’s apparent new readiness to address international concerns about its atomic ambitions will be tested in talks with UN inspectors today, with diplomats hoping for progress such as on access to a sensitive military site.
But the diplomats say Iran will probably agree to cooperate fully with an investigation by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) only if a broader deal is reached in separate negotiations with six world powers.
New President Hassan Rouhani has raised hopes of an end to international deadlock over the nuclear programme by promising to engage with the West, in return for an easing of sanctions that are damaging the Iranian economy.
The Vienna-based IAEA has been investigating accusations for several years that Iran may have coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives and revamp a missile cone in a way suitable for a nuclear warhead.
Iran says such claims are baseless and forged, and a series of meetings in Vienna between Tehran officials and the IAEA inspectors since early 2012 have been fruitless.
Expectations for today’s round are higher and the diplomats believe Iran may soon offer some concessions, perhaps by allowing the inspectors to visit its Parchin military base southeast of Tehran.
“I think both sides are seeking to see whether they can be a bit more creative,” one Western envoy said. A diplomat said Iran would need to come up with “something positive”.
The IAEA believes nuclear-related explosives tests took place at Parchin, possibly a decade ago, and wants the inspectors to interview officials and study documents to shed light on what happened there.
It has acknowledged, however, that it may no longer unearth anything at Parchin due to suspected Iranian efforts to remove any incriminating nuclear-linked traces.
Tehran denies the accusations and says it will allow visits to Parchin once the two sides have reached an agreement on how the investigation should be carried out. Any overall deal with the IAEA is likely to depend on progress at the separate talks in Geneva between Iran and the six powers – the US, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia, which want Tehran to curb nuclear work that can have both civilian and military uses.
These negotiations resumed on a hopeful note two weeks ago and a further round is due on November 7 and 8. An Iranian parliamentarian was quoted as saying Iran had stopped its higher-grade uranium enrichment, but diplomats said they were unaware of any such move.
The IAEA – tasked with preventing the spread of nuclear weapons in the world – wants access to sites, officials and documents for its stalled investigation into alleged past experiments and research that could help Iran assemble atomic bombs if it decided to pursue such arms of mass destruction.
I think both sides are seeking to see whether they can be a bit more creative
Eleven meetings between senior IAEA and Iranian officials since January last year have so far failed to produce a framework accord outlining the terms for the investigation. But diplomats briefed on the closed-door discussions said Iran seemed more willing to tackle issues of substance in the last meeting, held in late September.
Western experts say Iran must address the IAEA’s concerns if it is to build confidence in the outside world that any activity it might have undertaken in the past to acquire a capability to produce nuclear weapons has ended.
Key issues at stake
Higher-level enrichment
The West’s most pressing concerns focus on Iran’s efforts to enrich uranium to 20 per cent fissile purity.
That level closes an important technological gap on the road towards making weapons-grade fuel, and western negotiators say this must be addressed as part of a preliminary confidence-building deal.
In meetings over the last two years, they have demanded that Iran suspend 20 per cent enrichment, send its existing stockpile abroad and shutter the Fordow production site buried deep inside a mountain south of Tehran, where most such work is done.
In return, they offered to lift sanctions on trade in gold, precious metals and petrochemicals but Iran has spurned that.
Tehran’s stock of 20 per cent uranium gas is closely watched in the West; Israel has threatened to attack if diplomacy fails to curb the programme and Iran amasses enough of the material – a short technical step from weapons-grade – to make a bomb.
Since Iran began enriching uranium to a 20 per cent concentration in 2010, it has produced more than the 240-250kg needed for one weapon.
But it has kept the stockpile below an Israeli ‘red line’ by converting part of the gas into oxide powder in order, it says, to fuel a medical research reactor.
Lower-level enrichment
If Iranian negotiators want to move more quickly and win broader sanctions relief, they may also have to address lower-level enrichment.
One way to allay western concerns could be to limit Iran’s production and stockpile of five per cent uranium, which can be used to fuel power plants but can also provide material for bombs if refined much further to weapons-grade.
Iran could agree to keep its stockpile – which western experts say could already be sufficient for several bombs if processed further – below a certain level or to limit the pace of installation of centrifuges used to enrich uranium.
Iran has put in place thousands of such machines in recent years. The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said in August that Iran had installed a total of 15,416 centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment plant, an increase of 1,861 since May.
Other Iranian facilities
Western states are also worried about other Iranian nuclear work, including a heavy water research reactor being built near the western town of Arak, which experts say could yield plutonium once it is operational – providing a potential second route to nuclear bombs. Iran has made further progress in construction at Arak, including putting the reactor vessel in place and beginning to make fuel, a report by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) showed in August.
But it also said the planned commissioning of Arak had been delayed from early 2014, potentially buying some time for diplomacy. Iran says the reactor will produce medical isotopes.
A series of UN Security Council resolutions since 2006 have demanded that Iran suspend all heavy water-related work.
Transparency
For any diplomatic deal to have a chance, diplomats and experts say, the UN nuclear watchdog must gain more intrusive inspection powers to ensure that it is implemented and that Iran does not have any hidden atomic activities.
This would require Iran to agree to give the UN agency the right to carry out snap inspections outside of its declared nuclear facilities under the so-called Additional Protocol to its safeguards agreement with the IAEA.
Iran says the protocol, which most if not all other countries adhere to, is voluntary. Since Rouhani’s election, it has pledged to “expand” cooperation with the IAEA.
The powers would also want Tehran to implement rules that would require it to give the IAEA early notice of any plans to build new nuclear facilities, not just six months before nuclear material is introduced in the facility as is the case now.
“Although Tehran is unlikely to accept dismantlement of its nuclear programme and facilities, it may be willing to accept enhancements to the IAEA inspection regime,” the Arms Control Association, a US-based advocacy and research group, said.
The IAEA is also seeking to look into suspicions that Iran may have coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives and adapt a ballistic missile cone so it could fit a nuclear warhead.
The IAEA and Iran have held 11 meetings since early 2012 in an attempt by the UN agency to resume its investigation into suspected atomic bomb research, so far without success. Iran denies any such activities.
A key demand by the IAEA is to inspect the Parchin military facility, where it suspects Iran carried out nuclear-related explosives tests, perhaps a decade ago.
The endgame
The contours of a final deal are far from clear. The UN Security Council has called on Iran, in a series of resolutions, to suspend uranium enrichment entirely.
But western diplomats acknowledge, in private, that some Iranian enrichment will have to be allowed, under very strict supervision and with caps on production capacity and stockpiling.
Iran wants the powers to recognise what it calls its “right” to uranium enrichment and to lift the sanctions crippling its economy.