It was a rude awakening for the international community last week when Islamic State extremists captured the Libyan coastal city of Sirte.
What Malta and Italy had been repeatedly warning about had started to unfold: Islamic extremists had infiltrated the North African State, taking advantage of the political vacuum and lack of security.
Foreign Minister George Vella had warned this was a possibility as far back as last summer when rival Libyan factions battled each other for power and recognition.
The development, including the release of a video purporting to show the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians, prompted the Italian Foreign Minister to call for UN-mandated military intervention in Libya.
He had said Italy was prepared to lead an international coalition and a force of 5,000 troops was even mentioned.
However, talk of military intervention, which Malta was quick to support, started to shift some days later when Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi called for a stronger diplomatic effort, not military intervention.
Yesterday, Italy called for urgent international action to halt Libya’s slide into chaos and said it was ready to help monitor a ceasefire and train local armed forces. But Defence Minister Roberta Pinotti warned that any military action needed agreement within Libya.
The change of mood was likely prompted by the cool reception of the US to the idea of a ground war in Libya.
A ground invasion to restore security in Libya and rout out extremists was always going to face big political, military and logistical problems. Libya is now split between the internationally recognised government appointed by the parliament in Tobruk and the self-declared administration in Tripoli. The two sides are locked in stalemate.
A third faction composed of Islamic extremists, mainly foreign fighters, has started to occupy territory outside the eastern coastal city of Derna, where a Libyan Islamist group pledged allegiance to Islamic State.
This confused scenario and the lack of a credible Libyan ally on the ground brought back memories of the bungled US-led UN intervention in Somalia in 1992.
Immortalised by the film Black Hawk Down, the US military supported by Pakistani and Malaysian forces provided cover for UN humanitarian relief efforts in Somalia. Initially greeted by Somalis as they landed on the beach, it became increasingly difficult for the US military to determine who was friend and foe in a country ruled by competing militias.
The mission was abandoned 18 months later when two US helicopters were downed in the capital, Mogadishu.
Scenes of US soldiers being dragged around the dusty streets of Mogadishu caused a public outcry and the ghosts of that failed mission continued to haunt US foreign policy in the years that followed.
Former army commander Brigadier Maurice Calleja believes similar problems could beset any ground intervention in Libya.
“The biggest problem in Libya is identifying the enemy. There are many tribes and the country is split between two rival governments. The in-fighting will create problems for any foreign troops because it will be unclear who the enemy is.”
It is a sentiment expressed by the self-declared Tripoli administration representative in Malta Hussin Musrati, who told Times of Malta on Tuesday that Libyans would unite against any foreign invasion of his country.
Brig. Calleja is not convinced IS in Libya is as strong as it is made out to be. “The group may have made international headlines because of the brutal murder of the Egyptian Christians, but the hype may have created the impression they are much bigger than they actually are,” he says.
However, the extremists’ warning that Europe was next in their sights is a worrying prospect, according to Brig. Calleja.
The hype may have created the impression they are much bigger than they actually are
It is this threat that prompted Malta and Italy to call for a UN-mandated intervention that would help restore security in Libya.
But writing in his weekly column today Ranier Fsadni, an expert on Libya (see page 14), argues any intervention will best be piloted by the Arab League. It will also have to be accompanied by adequate guarantees for the Tripoli administration that the fight against terrorism will not include them.
This is pertinent because renegade former Libyan general Khalifa Haftar, who is loosely aligned with the Tobruk government, has pledged to wipe out all Islamic militants, making no distinction between IS extremists and Islamist moderates in Tripoli and Misurata.
This complex scenario makes any ground intervention a very sensitive and risky operation.
But according to Brig. Calleja, another major problem is Libya’s sheer size, which will require a lot of ground troops to secure control of large swathes of territory. “From my military experience a war can never be won without ground troops. It is the infantry that will eventually have to move in, take territory and defeat the enemy on the ground.”
For retired army commander Brigadier Rupert Montanaro, another major issue to contend with is maintaining any ground operation over a span of time.
“All supplies would have to be transported to Libya and the infrastructure put in place to have them delivered to the ground forces. Libya’s vastness makes this a veritable logistical problem,” Brig. Montanaro says.
Everybody agrees the ideal scenario would see a Libyan national unity government with a resolve to restore law and order in the country. But with IS taking control of Sirte the warning bell has been sounded. Whether Libya is a Somalia in the making is yet to be seen, but protracted efforts to find a political compromise can only hasten that prospect.
Libya facts
Population: 6.2 million (that is, 10 times less than Italy).
Area: 1.7 million square kilometres (almost the size of France, Germany, Spain and Italy put together). It is the 17th largest country in the world.
Factions:
Tobruk government
Recognised by the international community as the legitimate government, it was appointed by the parliament based in Tobruk, which was elected last May. The election was deemed illegitimate by the Libyan constitutional court but the government headed by Abdullah al-Thani remains at the helm.
General Khalifa Haftar
A renegade general, he initiated Operation Dignity, a military effort last year to rid Libya of Islamic militants. He is broadly aligned with the Tobruk government and reports suggest he may be appointed head of the national army by the al-Thani administration. He is considered by Libya Dawn to be a Gaddafi loyalist.
Libya Dawn
This is coalition of moderate Islamist groups, supported by the strong Misurata militias, which has set up a rival parliament and government in the capital Tripoli. It contests the legitimacy of the Tobruk administration.
Islamic State
It is unclear whether in Libya, Islamic State extremists, considered to be terrorists, come directly from the group’s base in Iraq and Syria. But some Libyan Islamist factions have pledged allegiance to IS, including a group that has controlled Derna since September.
Various militias
There are numerous militias, remnants of the rebel movement that ousted Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, that control certain areas.
Cities:
Tripoli
The capital is controlled by the Libya Dawn coalition. IS militants may be present in the city, having claimed responsibility for the attack on the Corinthia Hotel on January 27.
Misurata
The third largest city backs the Tripoli administration.
Sirte
The birthplace of Gaddafi, the coastal city fell to IS fighters last week. It is strategically located in the middle, between Tripoli and Benghazi.
Benghazi
Libya’s second largest city in the east is partially controlled by forces loyal to the Tobruk government and partially in the hands of local Islamist groups. Fighting has not abated since General Haftar tried to capture the city last year.
Tobruk
The easternmost city close to the Egyptian border is home to the internationally recognised parliament and government. The administration fled to Tobruk last summer when Libya Dawn coalition forces overran the capital.
Derna
A seaside city in the east that has been controlled by Libyan Islamists who have pledged allegiance to IS since September.
kurt.sansone@timesofmalta.com