The Libyan conflict enters its fourth month today but, while some say Muammar Gaddafi’s end is nigh, others fear the stalemate will prevail, leaving a detrimental impact on Malta’s economy.

Abdalla Mohammed, a Libyan activist who lives in Malta, says Tripoli is reaching boiling point.

Holding back tears, Mr Mohammed spoke to The Times just after receiving word of two of his best friends being arrested during a crackdown in Tripoli following a recent wave of fresh protests and dissent.

“This shows how desperate Gaddafi has become... I’m sure, more than ever, that his days are numbered,” he said, adding that hundreds of people were being arrested, primarily to be used as human shields.

This strategy makes it difficult for the Misurata rebels to progress towards the west because they are increasingly facing families and young people shielding Col Gaddafi’s forces.

Similar tactics are being used to dampen Nato’s efforts, with recent reports suggesting Col Gaddafi having bunkers underneath children’s playgrounds.

Mr Mohammed looked pleased by the latest development that the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against Col Gaddafi and his son for war crimes. However, this did not necessarily mean he would be brought to justice, he said, referring to Sudan’s Omar al-Bashi who remained President despite similar charges.

Judging by reports, Mr Mohammed estimates at least 10,000 people were killed over the past three months.

Like Mr Mohammed, businessman Mario Debono, who had interests in Libya and is helping coordinate aid to Misurata, is unsure about what to expect.

He said the situation for Maltese businesses was becoming increasingly dire, with banks upping the pressure and more jobs hanging in the balance. “If this stalemate continues, some people will lose a lot of money and others will lose everything,” he said, pointing out that businesses were chewing through their finite fat.

He said Malta had played a crucial role in providing aid to the most important city in the conflict: Misurata. This enabled rebels to hold out to the point that they were now in control of the city and could begin to progress.

“Without the aid coming from Malta, they would not have managed to hold out. They know this and they are very grateful.”

He added: “We need to keep supporting Misurata so they can move forward. As much as they need weapons, they need food and medicine to keep them strong and willing to fight.”

Mr Debono called on the government to set up a representation office in Benghazi to have a link for businesses in light of various opportunities being created. Malta should also begin operating flights to the rebel stronghold because, as things stand, people had to drive there from Cairo.

“Other countries are in Benghazi and we’re losing out. They have money and they are buying,” he said, adding this would not require the government to recognise the rebel council. “I understand their fears. They don’t know who these people are.”

Mr Debono added that the ICC’s arrest warrant was a bad move by politicians who just wanted to be seen to be doing something. In reality, he said, this closed the door for Col Gaddafi to flee to a country willing to take him in.

Meanwhile, a military expert who preferred not to be named warned the stalemate could continue indefinitely unless the largely divided Nato forces upped the ante.

According to him, Col Gaddafi is hoping to hold out long enough to make politicians lose interest and stick to maintaining the no-fly zone rather than carrying out strikes. This is how Iraq’s Saddam Hussein survived before the US inva-sion.

However, the fear of Col Gaddafi surviving could prompt a much-needed military push, which could lead to a “lucky strike”.

But while the situation is understandably making people impatient, anthropologist Ranier Fsadni warns that the speedy overthrow of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes should not be taken as a benchmark.

“Three months in a conflict of this nature is nothing exceptional,” he said, pointing out various reasons for the conflict’s delay, including the poor training of rebels, the crackdown on communication and the fact that many important tribes had not taken clear stands.

“Also, the record of no-fly zones is that they prolong conflicts (by redressing the imbalance of military power) but they do not bring them to a speedy end without additional boots on the ground.”

He said the situation was still very fluid and, while the opposition could be optimistic, they had been so before.