Toyota Motor Corp said it will crank net profit up to a third straight annual record this year, as rising US sales offset weaker business in Asia after last year’s bumper earnings were powered by foreign exchange gains and cost cuts.

After net profit jumped 19 per cent in the year ended March to 2.17 trillion yen (£12 billion), the world’s top-selling automaker said yesterday it expects the profit to rise 3.5 per cent this fiscal year to 2.25 trillion yen. That’s below the average estimate of 2.44 trillion yen from a Thomson Reuters survey of 27 analysts.

Toyota is forecasting operating profit will edge up 1.8 per cent this year to 2.80 trillion yen. Its projections assume the dollar would average 115 yen this year – conservative compared with around 120 yen currently, boosting the value of sales in the US, Toyota’s biggest market, when converted back into the Japanese currency. The bullish earnings forecasts came as Toyota projected overall vehicle sales will drop 0.8 per cent this year to 8.90 million from 8.97 million last year.

But it expects lucrative sales in North America will grow 4.2 per cent to 2.83 million from 2.715 million last year, cancelling out the impact on profit from weaker Asia sales and markets in Russia and the Middle East hit by oil price falls.

In what President Akio Toyoda has called an “intentional pause”, the company has sought to ensure sales growth stays at a sustainable pace, free of overcapacity and quality problems that plagued Toyota in previous years.

Last month, Toyota ended a self-imposed expansion freeze with plans for new factories in Mexico and China, but those won’t be ready for several years. The growth cap could mean a loss of the industry sales crown this year to Volkswagen AG, which in turn is looking to improve profitability to close the margin gap with Toyota.