The United Nations last week announced its biggest ever appeal, seeking $6.5 billion (€4.75bn) for humanitarian aid to Syria. The UN estimates that almost three-quarters of Syria’s 22.4 million population will need humanitarian aid in 2014.
The latest UN figures show that there are 6.5 million refugees displaced people inside Syria, while another 2.3 million refugees have fled to other countries, including 838,000 in Lebanon, 567,000 in Jordan, 540,000 in Turkey, 207,000 in Iraq and 129,000 in Egypt.
The UN appeal coincides with a new study by the International Rescue Committee (headed by former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband) that warns that starvation is now threatening the Syrian population.
This bleak situation in Syria, where over 100,000 people are estimated to have been killed since the unrest began more than two years ago, represents nothing but a massive failure by the international community.
Obama now finds himself with few, if any, diplomatic options left in Syria
The UN has described the Syrian state of affairs as the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II; it is, in fact, far worse than whatever took place in the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. At least the Yugoslav conflict was stabilised as a result of European and US diplomacy (rather late in the day) helped by Nato airstrikes. In Syria, which is without doubt more complicated than Yugoslavia, the Western powers seem at a loss at what to do, especially now that the situation has deteriorated so badly.
Although the deal signed some months ago by the US and Russia in Geneva forcing Syria to surrender its chemical weapons – after the Bashar al-Assad regime had brutally used them on its own people – was a positive development, it did nothing to solve the civil war destroying the country. In fact, the situation has worsened since then, and Assad has used a ‘war of starvation’ against his people, in which he prevents medical and food supplies from reaching rebel-held areas.
To make matters worse, the moderate Syrian rebel groups over whom the West has some influence have now been decisively sidelined by extreme Islamists, many of whom are linked to al-Qaeda. These extremists, who have hijacked the revolution, have committed many atrocities and have subjected populations under their control, including Syrian Christians, to strict Sharia law. Fighting has also taken place between the Free Syrian Army (moderate rebels) and al-Qaeda groups, much to the delight of the Assad regime.
Two weeks ago, the Free Syrian Army suffered a significant setback when Islamist fighters overran its headquarters in northern Syria, forcing its leader, General Salim Idris, to flee to Qatar. The Islamists also took over FSA warehouses filled with US-supplied telecommunications equipment, field rations and medicine. The US then suspended the provision of non-military assistance to the Free Syrian Army for fear it will land in jihadist hands.
Unfortunately, during this conflict, the US and its European allies chose not to provide the moderate Syrian opposition with weapons, out of fear of becoming embroiled in Syria. This tipped the balance in favour of the Assad regime, backed without the slightest hesitation (or any shame) by Russia and Iran (and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah), and greatly strengthened the rebel jihadist groups, supported by some of the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia.
There is no doubt that Assad is more secure today than he was a year ago, although he may never regain control of his country. However, he can now declare that he is fighting Islamic extremists, which makes it more difficult to call for his removal. Furthermore, by agreeing to give up his chemical weapons he has presented himself as somebody who the world can negotiate with.
Regretfully, US President Barack Obama now finds himself with few, if any, diplomatic options left in Syria. Assad has savagely and without mercy killed thousands of his own people, the majority of them civilians, in order to survive, and should not be allowed to remain in power. On the other hand, most of the rebel forces now consist of jihadists, who have proven to be equally brutal. Nobody wants to see them in power.
Peace talks, hosted by the US and Russia, are planned to be held in Geneva next month between representatives of the Syrian government and Opposition, but few analysts are optimistic about their outcome. The best the world can hope for is some sort of truce, so that much-needed humanitarian aid can be provided to millions of Syrians.
The US must use all its diplomatic skills to convince Iran – with which it has entered a new period of rapprochement, as well as Russia, to exert pressure on Damascus to agree to such a ceasefire. Washington should also ask Saudi Arabia, supposedly its ally, to ask the rebels to go for a truce.
Once a ceasefire is in place, then perhaps the possibility of a long-drawn-out peace process can begin. This will take years, but the major regional players, as well as the US and its European allies, should play their part in trying to end this terrible nightmare for the Syrian people.