Germans go to the polls today in an election which will almost certainly result in the re-election of CDU (Christian Democrat) Chancellor Angela Merkel, but questions remain over who Merkel’s coalition partner will be. Merkel has governed with the Liberal FDP since 2009 but her junior coalition partner faces the possibility of failing to cross the five per threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
Merkel remains personally very popular – the huge gap between her party and the others is evidence of this – and she is also considered by Germans to be a ‘safe pair of hands’.
The latest (and last) opinion poll conducted by the German broadcaster ARD, published exactly one week ago, showed the following support for the parties: CDU/CSU: 40 per cent; SPD (Social Democrats 28 per cent; Greens: 10 per cent; Left Party: eight per cent; FDP: five per cent; AfD (anti-euro Alternative for Germany three per cent; Pirate Party (reform of information society three per cent.
Should the above polls prove correct, the combined left vote would amount to 46 per cent, compared to Merkel’s bloc of 45 per cent, and technically this means that Merkel would be defeated and replaced by a new left-wing government headed by the Social Democrat’s candidate, Peer Steinbrück.
However, both the Social Democrats and the Greens have ruled out joining a coalition with the Left Party, which consists of former East German Communists and former left-wing Social Democrat dissidents. So, in such a scenario, it is likely that the Social Democrats will become the CDU/CSU’s junior partner in a ‘grand coalition’, similar to the one formed between 2005 and 2009, and again headed by Merkel.
The same outcome is likely should the FDP obtain less than five per cent of the vote, which is definitely a possibility – it slumped to three per cent of the vote (down from eight per cent four years ago) in the Bavarian state election one week ago – which means the Liberals will be excluded from Parliament. Merkel’s sister party in Bavaria, the CSU, however, did extremely well in that election, getting 49 per cent of the vote.
Furthermore, should the anti-single currency Alternative for Germany manage to get five per cent of the vote (the polls suggest it will not), then this could create further problems for Merkel, because it is likely most of these votes would have come from traditional CDU/CSU or FDP voters.
A CDU/CSU coalition with the FDP is still a possibility, however, as voters could view last week’s poor result for the Liberals in Bavaria as a wake-up call for the party. The FDP has slumped in popularity over the past four years – in 2009 it achieved its best ever result, 14.6 per cent of the popular vote, but has since lost much of its support due to its support for spending cuts and its failure to lower taxes as promised in its 2009 manifesto.
Angela Merkel has ensured stability and continuity at the centre of the EU during its worst ever crisis
Merkel’s coalition government has been praised for presiding over positive economic indicators for Germany, such as strong exports, low unemployment and relatively strong econo-mic growth. Germans also credit the Chancellor with having steered them through the eurozone crisis in a careful, calculated way without costing taxpayers too much.
Although some observers have criticised Merkel for emphasising the importance of tough austerity measures in a number of eurozone countries, there is no doubt that she played a major role in getting Europe back on its feet.
The key issues in this election are the introduction of a minimum wage, which the left-wing parties are in favour of but Merkel and the FDP oppose as they fear an erosion of competitiveness; tax reform, where the Left wants tax relief for low earners and tax increases for top earners while Merkel and her allies want tax cuts; nuclear energy, where Merkel and the FDP want to slow down the transition from nuclear energy to renewable energy while the Left wants to speed it up; and the eurozone crisis, where the Left accuse Merkel of imposing harsh austerity measures on the countries of southern Europe.
The two blocs in the German political spectrum are appear almost equal in strength, and while Merkel will be re-elected Chancellor, the possibility of a ‘grand coalition’ between the CDU/CSU and the SPD appears quite possible.
Such coalitions are never easy, but the Germans are used to coalitions and they make them work. A similar ‘grand coalition’ between 2005 and 2009 worked out reasonably well, and there is no reason why another one this time can’t also be successful.
A Merkel-led coalition including the Social Democrats would perhaps concentrate more on helping the seven per cent unemployed Germans find work and could also be a bit more flexible with regard to the austerity measures imposed across the eurozone, but there won’t be radical changes to the current CDU/CSU and FDP coalition.
Angela Merkel has ensured stability and continuity at the centre of the EU during its worst ever crisis, so her re-election, at the head of whatever coalition, will be good news for Europe.