As the US moved the knight into check, she realised she was playing a game she should not have entertained. For thousands of years empires have risen and kingdoms have fallen in the Middle East and the world, and the US has now interfered in one of the most difficult games in history, solving Jerusalem; a gambit that reminds the world that the US, for now at least, is the only hyper power with a presumption, as all empires had in history, that they will always rule supreme.
That said, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all joined ‘Team Trump’ at his top table on the subject of ‘rearranging’ the Middle East.
It seems like déjà vu, a geopolitical chess game reminiscent of the Cold War days.
The US accepted Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, thinking she was moving her knight into check yet she miscalculated and underestimated some reactions. Turkey, Iran and Jordan also know how to play the game.
What is Team Trump’s objective?
The ultimate objective is to separate, to use a Christian term, ‘Church from State’, something similar to the trigger caused by Martin Luther 500 years ago, ultimately a revolutionary reformation of Islam. What we are talking about specifically is the future of Mecca and Medina, the two holiest places for Sunni Muslims. These moves, as I said earlier, literally turn the Middle East on its head and into turmoil.
The Saudi-controlled Muslim World League secretary-general Mohammed bin Abdul Karim Al-Issa has been doing the rounds of countries one of which was to see the Pope. A fanfare of Arab states are hailing MWL’s efforts to support ‘moderation’.
Meanwhile, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is organising a conference in Thailand on interreligious dialogue.
The EU and the OIC’s general secretariat held their second senior officials’ meeting (SOM). Both sides discussed a wide range of regional and international issues of mutual interest, and agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation.
On December 17, both Erdogan and more importantly Jordan’s King Abdullah made their first real moves on the multiple player chess board.
Erdogan said Muslims may lose Mecca if they fail to hold on to Jerusalem adding: “Like a century ago, the Islamic world is facing efforts to reshape it through blood, tears, and strife between brothers.”
King Abdullah was due to meet the Pope to discuss the developments and ramifications of Trump’s (and friends) Jerusalem decision.
The Jordanian government, which is the custodian of the Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem’s Old City, has condemned as a violation of international law Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Trump’s decision to move the US embassy there from Tel Aviv ignores Palestinian claims on the city and have led to worldwide criticism. Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem has never been recognised internationally, and all countries maintain their embassies in Tel Aviv.
The UN has long maintained that the only way to forge peace is to have two states, Israel and Palestine; with Jerusalem as the capital of both.
A special ingredient of this that prevents an all-out nuclear war is a hitherto not made public special relationship between Washington and Moscow.
It is not, as the Democrats would say in their ‘fake news’, collusion but pragmatic diplomacy between the US and Russia.
Actually it’s even more. It bypasses the Pentagon and US State Department as it is a personality driven friendship, admiration if you will, between the two presidents.
So Trump revealed his move on the chess board regarding Jerusalem. Itdoesn’t stop there.
In so doing, he tossed aside any lingering pretence of the US being able to broker a deal between Israel and Palestine. There can be no “neutrality” now. Without Jerusalem as its capital, no Palestinian State can exist.
It is only a matter of time before another intifada starts that may extend to terrorism overseas.
A special ingredient of this that prevents an all-out nuclear war is a hitherto not made public special relationship between Washington and Moscow
Only a symbol as powerful as Jerusalem can unite Palestinians as viscerally opposed to each other as Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas. Only Jerusalem speaks to millions of Muslims around the world and unite Hezbollah in Lebanon and of course Iran which is committed to a ‘free’ Jerusalem, though Shiite Muslims, for Iranians it is a matter of principle.
As Trump will soon learn, symbols are powerful.
They have a habit of creating an impregnable reality all of their own.
What is the final gambit of Team Trump who’s top players are, President Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamad Bin Salman (MBS) and UAE Crown Prince Mohamad Bin Zayed (MBZ) in particular?
It is to make Mecca and Medina and maybe even Jerusalem into independent states, like the Vatican is in Italy, hence the important role of the Pope and the Vatican, which is the perfect example of a State within a State.
Trump could not and would not have made his move and expected next moves unless he had regional backers which is why he has fostered such close relations with the new younger generation of Arab leaders.
An important byproduct of the Jerusalem declaration by Trump is the added domestic bonus that ensures that the very powerful American Jewish lobby will almost certainly guarantee him a second term as president. A win-win for Trump it seems but not in reality.
The opposition to Team Trump, namely for now particularly Jordan and Turkey, means also Qatar and soon other countries who will line up against Trump. That is why the Trump-Putin aspect of it is so critical to prevent a confrontation.
Also, Turkey remains part of Nato, an added complicated dimension, and is currently the leader of the 57-member nation strong Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and sadly becoming day by day a more militant and extremist Islamic Muslim Brotherhood-led nation.
The issues at stake, unfortunately for the Palestinians, are greater than their awful plight and their never-ending injustice.
There are many other voices in the Arab world echoing the ideas espoused here.
Hamzah Muhammad al-Salim, the writer and economic analyst, tweeted: “Once peace is concluded with Israel, it will become Saudi Arabia’s first tourist destination.”
What will happen next in this multiplayer chess game?
Well apart from Jordan and Turkey’s immediate vitriolic reaction, this question begs also what will Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah (Lebanon) do next.
It is essential to mention, while considering the possible scenarios, that Egypt is essentially part of Team Trump.
But let us not forget a most important reaction to anticipate; that is what will the Palestinian people do next?
Could a new modern terrorist faction of the PLO reappear in the world now their hopes for a two-state solution have been crushed?
This month marks the 30th anniversary of the first intifada. Just watch the Palestinian reaction at the walls of the Old City. The knight did not simply fall into check. The US thought it played checkmate with Jerusalem. What we do not yet know is whether the US fell into checkmate. This first match is over but a new one will begin very shortly.
It’s a more dangerous world now, as Trump continues to make these dramatic foreign policy moves whichever way you look at it, and will get worse in 2018.
Richard Galustian is a political and security advisor based in MENA countries for nearly 40 years.