The Taliban’s “no comment” on the murder of Afghanistan’s peace broker highlights splits within the militia and a plethora of factions who may have wanted him dead, which threaten fresh chaos.
Experts now suspect that the turban bomber who killed Burhanuddin Rabbani by claiming to bring a special message from the Taliban may not have been sent by the militia’s supreme leader Mullah Omar, or had his approval.
With a range of factions standing to benefit from Mr Rabbani’s death, the lack of clarity on the identity of the assassins fans concern about political instability, ethnic tensions and a nebulous insurgency in Afghanistan.
“Whether the assassination of Mr Rabbani was authorised by the Taliban leadership, or was an operation by rogue Taliban or indeed, whether it was conducted by non-Taliban, one would expect an authorised Taliban response, whether it is confirmation or denial or condemnation,” said Kate Clark of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.
“Instead, there has been confusion and silence.”
This “may indicate division in the senior ranks about this assassination and what they want to say about it”, Ms Clark said.
After the killing, the Taliban’s two main spokesmen – usually swift to claim attacks and exaggerate casualty tolls – were unusually quiet.
Their phones were switched off, they did not send their usual stream of text messages to reporters and there was nothing about the death on their glossy website, Voice of Jihad.
Police and other officials said the attack was carried out by a Taliban bomber who waited for the Afghan former president for up to four days, thought to be carrying a special message from the militia.
Finally, nearly 24 hours after the attack, the Taliban issued a “no comment” statement on Wednesday, angrily rebutting reports in some media that they had claimed responsibility.
“If the leadership knew (their identity), they would have shared it with us,” he said. “We’re investigating at the moment to find out who did this and who they were and who had sent them.”
Killing Mr Rabbani would fit a recent Taliban pattern of assassinations including that of Karzai advisor Jan Mohammad at his home in July.
According to Human Rights Watch, Mr Rabbani was implicated in war crimes during the brutal fighting that killed or displaced hundreds of thousands of Afghans in the early 1990s.
One Pakistani security official speaking anonymously insisted that the assassination “came as a great shock to Pakistan.”
Another added: “We should not forget that there are many Taliban groups operating inside Afghanistan who are opposed to peace talks.”
The US is stepping up pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani network, perhaps the Taliban’s most dangerous faction and blamed for last week’s 19-hour siege targeting the US embassy in Kabul.
Others groups like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-i-Islami are also key players in the insurgency.
“Though Rabbani was loved by few, his death is a troubling omen for a fragile Afghan government that, like many of its predecessors in recent history, is buffeted from all sides,” said Shashank Joshi of think-tank the Royal United Services Institute.