The Nationalist Party yesterday started preparations for its first billboard campaign since the 2008 general election but the move is not indicative of a snap election, according to party insiders.
How can we precipitate the situation on one hand while the Prime Minister says it’s business as usual on the other?
“Obviously, we are in a campaign mode of sorts and we have been for some time, but the billboards only mark another phase of what is likely to be a long haul... the whistle has not been blown,” a government insider told The Sunday Times.
There are no extraordinary items on tomorrow’s Cabinet agenda and the schedule of key ministers for the next few months is business as usual, including holidays that some are planning for August.
Moreover, the Prime Minister made it a point to emphasise the business as usual line during an interview on his party’s station yesterday, where he insisted the government had a duty and a mandate to forge ahead.
Behind the scenes, party insiders pointed out there are problems even at strategy level, which would also prompt the Lawrence Gonzi to buy more time.
A senior Nationalist official urged Dr Gonzi to draw up a proper strategy by the end of the month, plotting the way forward for the government.
“So far we’ve been following someone else’s strategy, not our own. The Prime Minister should lock himself up at home and decide what we’re going to do. He is ultimately the man with the finger on the button,” the official said.
“Furthermore, by de-selecting Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, Franco Debono and Jesmond Mugliett from contesting the next election, we’ve merely escalated the situation and sent out a contradictory message.
“How can we precipitate the situation on one hand while the Prime Minister is saying it’s business as usual on the other? It is not business as usual. We’re now practically operating in a coalition.”
The source said the recent tough actions and statements clearly showed that Transport Minister Austin Gatt was increasingly at the heart of strategic decisions, while Richard Cachia Caruana – known to be a smoother strategist – has been noticeably absent, “too busy defending himself” against Dr Pullicino Orlando’s attacks.
Meanwhile, insiders from both parties told The Sunday Times that Dr Pullicino Orlando’s resignation from the Nationalist Party on Thursday ushered in a stalemate that is likely to last at least as long as Parliament’s summer recess, which comes to an end on October 1.
The opposition has the option of asking the Speaker to convene Parliament early and file a motion of no confidence. However, party sources insist this will not happen unless it is certain of support by Dr Pullicino Orlando or fellow rebel Dr Debono.
Joseph Muscat has been reluctant to commit himself on this move, saying the ball is in the Prime Minister’s court.
“The situation is different to that in January (when the government survived a no confidence motion on the Speaker’s casting vote after Dr Debono abstained).
“There you had a developing situation that required an immediate decision, we either went for it or we didn’t,” a Labour Party source said. “The situation today is not like that. It is more structured so we have to wait and see.
“We don’t rule out anything but we have to wait and see.”
This waiting game depends on the moves played by Dr Pullicino Orlando and Dr Debono.
Dr Pullicino Orlando is unlikely to stir the pot in the coming weeks, particularly as he is getting married for the second time next month.
However, after the recess, there could be trouble between the Żebbuġ MP and the government over controversial Bills in the pipeline, such as that on cohabitation and in-vitro fertilisation.
This means the Prime Minister could still call an election as late as February 2013, close to the expiry of this administration’s five-year term.
The mystery card in this complicated game is Dr Debono, who has already declared he is not prepared to “support” the government if Dr Gatt remains in Cabinet – he blames the Transport Minister for drumming up the party against him.
He also has a pending appeal against the PN executive’s censure over his support for a Labour no confidence motion in ex-Home Affairs Minister Carm Mifsud Bonnici.