In a scenario that will delight organisers, TV executives and armchair fans, the Six Nations championship is set to be decided in the final minutes of the final fixture of this weekend’s “Super Saturday” triple bill when France face Ireland in Paris.
After smashing Italy 46-7 on Saturday Ireland go into the game with three wins and a +81 points difference. Any sort of victory for Joe Schmidt’s team is almost certain to bring them their second title in 29 years and complete a fairytale farewell for Brian O’Driscoll, playing his 141st and last international.
France also have three wins but their feeble +3 differential means they would need an extraordinary landslide to have a chance.
England claimed their first Triple Crown since 2003 with their 29-18 win over Wales at Twickenham on Sunday and travel to Italy needing victory to have a shot at that title.
Their +32 advantage means that they too would probably need to put 60 points on the Italians – an unlikely scenario in Rome – to prevail if Ireland also win. An England victory though would be enough should France also win.
A year ago it came down to the penultimate match and points difference, when an England win in Cardiff would have secured a grand slam while Wales needed to win by seven points to take the honours. Wales duly triumphed 30-3 to retain their title.
This year England get the ball rolling with a 1.30pm kickoff in Rome. Wales, their hopes of a third successive title long gone, then host Scotland at 3.45pm before Paris takes centre stage at 6pm.
Previous results in the two fixtures that matter have caused most British bookmakers to make England narrow favourites.
In the last 50 years Ireland have managed just two wins in 30 championship games in Paris.
England, in contrast, have won all 19 of their games against Italy home and away, though their recent Rome encounters have been tight affairs with four, five, and four-point victories in the last three.
Amid all the emotion of O’Driscoll’s farewell there was a professional backdrop to the way the Irish poured on the points in the latter stages against Italy.
Schmidt is a real pragmatist and has dismissed the historical baggage surround today’s game.
“We can’t get distracted by history what we need to do is really turn up and play on the field,” he said.
Playing today: 1.30pm Italy vs England; 3.45pm Wales Scotland; 6pm France vs Ireland.
Standings: Ireland (3-0-1) 6; England (3-0-1) 6; France (3-0-1) 6; Wales (2-0-2) 4; Scotland (1-0-3) 2; Italy (0-0-4) 0.