The shooting down of a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border by Turkey has made a difficult situation even more complicated, just when it looked possible that a united international front against the so-called Islamic State could be forged in the aftermath of the Paris terrorist attacks.
I still think there is a greater willingness on the part of the international community to work more closely to combat IS – the meeting between French President François Hollande and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday is proof of this – but this latest incident is without doubt a setback in this regard.
The downing of the Russian plane is also a very dangerous event, one that raised the possibility of a direct confrontation between a Nato country and a nuclear-armed military superpower. In fact this clash marked the first time since the Cold War that a Russian plane was shot down by a Nato member, so the potential for trouble, and a wider escalation of the Syrian conflict is certainly there.
To make matters worse, sadly one of the Russian pilots who had parachuted out, and a Russian marine in a rescue helicopter, were killed by Turkmen rebels in Syria (supported by Turkey and probably also the West).
Turkey said the Russian plane was shot down after it had been repeatedly warned by a Turkish air force jet that it had violated its national airspace. Russia denies this saying its plane was always in Syrian airspace. It is difficult to say exactly who is technically in the right, especially since one report has claimed that the Russian jet spent just 17 seconds in Turkish airspace.
I believe that both sides behaved badly. Russia should have been more careful not to venture too close to Turkish airspace particularly as Moscow is well aware just how sensitive Ankara is about these matters – in a way Russia was provoking Turkey to take action. On the other hand I feel that Turkey did overreact and should have at least either warned the Russian jet that it would be shot down or fired warning shots.
After the incident, a war of words endured between the two sides. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Turkey of stabbing his country in the back and demanded an apology. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Moscow not to play with fire, hinting that Turkey would act in the same manner under similar circumstances, although he did say yesterday that he wished the incident had not occurred.
In a setback for Russian-Turkish relations Moscow abolished visa-free travel for Turks, warned citizens not to travel to Turkey and announced that a number of economic sanctions on Turkey will be drawn up. Russia also strengthened its anti-aircraft defences in Syria by moving a cruiser towards the coast and deploying new missiles at its main base.
It is important that this situation is not allowed to escalate. Publicly Nato endorsed Turkey’s right to defend its airspace but I am sure that privately the alliance is urging the Turks to show restraint and to seek a dialogue with the Russians. US President Barack Obama in fact did say that the two sides need to speak to each other to reduce tensions.
Putin and Erdogan are both proud nationalists who like to portray themselves as strongmen
If this incident showed one thing, it is the need for much more co-ordination between all the military powers involved in the Syrian conflict. In a way, the shooting down of the Russian jet was a tragedy waiting to happen and no more of these alarming incidents should be allowed to happen. It is essential, therefore, that the different militaries exchange flight paths and other essential information to avoid another disaster.
There are two main obstacles to Russian-Turkish relations returning to normal – which is essential if real progress is going to be made in resolving the Syrian conflict. This first is that Putin and Erdogan are quite similar in character: they are both proud nationalists who like to portray themselves as strongmen and will not be easily convinced to back down or compromise without saving face.
The second is that they have different views on Syria. Erdogan wants Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to be removed from power and is supporting some of the rebel groups in Syria, some of whom have strong Islamist links. He has accused Russia of bombing western-supported anti-Assad rebels.
Putin, on the other hand, is supporting his ally Assad and has accused Turkey of being soft on the Islamic State and of being partly responsible for its growth by backing the regime in Damascus.
Russia and Turkey need to take a step back, think of the consequences of an escalation, agree to compromise with each other and rethink their strategy on Syria.
There can be no room for pride or egoism and there is absolutely nothing to be gained by allowing this situation to spiral out of control; the only people who will benefit will be Islamic State.
The latest incident could very well damage the Vienna process aimed at finding a political solution in Syria – which includes an attempt to establish which of the rebel groups could begin negotiations with the Assad regime.
It is important, however, that this is not allowed to happen, and both Russia and Turkey must be prepared to compromise. Moscow must stop insisting that all Syrian rebels are terrorists while Ankara must end its obstinate insistence that the number one priority should be the removal of Assad.
Turkey must also end its obsession with the Kurds and acknowledge that Kurdish forces are playing a crucial role in the fight against IS.
In the aftermath of the shooting down of the Russian jet, the only rational course to follow is for the two sides to engage in active diplomacy, edged on by the US and EU. Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish Foreign Minister, did say that Turkey wants to overcome the tensions with Moscow through “diplomacy”, while his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, made it clear that Moscow had “no intention of fighting a war with Turkey”. Let’s hope this is indeed the way forward.