The government is not forecasting a June election even if backbencher Franco Debono digs in his heels and refuses to vote with his party on a Budget Bill, according to Nationalist Party sources.
An autumn election appears more likely in the present scenario and the government is banking on the Speaker’s casting vote to secure passage of the Budget Bill on May 9.
The government’s one-seat majority has been put to the test over recent months by Dr Debono, who has voiced dissent over several government policies and repeatedly left the country guessing his intentions.
But in the event that Dr Debono abstains from the May 9 vote – much as he did in last January’s vote of no confidence in the government – the Prime Minister would have to rely on the Speaker’s casting vote to carry on governing.
Doing so would buy the government time and allow Lawrence Gonzi and his PN electoral team to establish an election date at some point later in the year.
Losing the May 9 Budget vote is not tantamount to losing a vote of confidence because it would leave the Prime Minister free to choose a date when to dissolve Parliament and call an election. On the other hand, losing a vote of confidence would force the Prime Minister to dissolve Parliament within three days.
PN sources said that the government had no intention of rushing to the polls, preferring an autumn election if the worst came to the worst.
They referred to the precedent set in 1997/1998 when a Labour Administration had hobbled on in government for several months despite needing the Speaker’s casting vote to pass a similar Budget Bill.
Political intrigue has heated up over recent days following Dr Debono’s insistence that debate on pending justice and home affairs motions should take place before the May 9 vote.
Two motions on the matter – one presented by Dr Debono himself, the other by the opposition – have languished on the Table of the House for weeks.
Dr Debono moved a Private Member’s Bill listing a variety of judicial reforms while the Labour Party motion presented last December calls for Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici, at the time Justice and Home Affairs Minister, to shoulder responsibility for “endemic failings” within Malta’s judicial structures.
Sources said that Dr Debono’s most recent demands had exasperated Dr Gonzi. “The Prime Minister was clear: the party can’t continue to bend over backwards to appease him and nobody had the right to dictate,” the sources said.
The Prime Minister’s refusal to debate the motions before May 9 has led to speculation that either the opposition or Dr Debono may use a parliamentary procedure to force the debate to take place.
The PL is treating this latest development with caution following the last vote of no confidence moved by the opposition in IT Minister Austin Gatt which Dr Debono initially indicated he would support but then abstained.
However, the party leadership is also facing internal pressure by influential members to escalate the prospect of an early election and partner with Dr Debono like the PN had done with Dom Mintoff in 1997.
“The Nationalists’ argument that Labour limped ahead through seven months of uncertainty brought about by (Dom) Mintoff doesn’t hold anymore because the uncertainty surrounding this government has been going on for more than seven months now,” one Labour source said.
Any MP can force Parliament to debate a motion within three days by successfully moving an adjournment motion.
Dr Debono yesterday admitted he was considering moving such a motion imminently.
“It is something I’m looking into. The Prime Minister has known about my position for a year now,” he said.
“I find it hard to understand how the Prime Minister is willing to risk the government’s fate to protect Dr Mifsud Bonnici.
I just hope he’s not an expert in the politics of spite.”
Dr Debono said that while he had been “willing to budge” when it came to the Budget vote, his position concerning the justice and home affairs motions was “absolutely categorical”.
Speculation about plans to force an immediate debate of the justice and home affairs motion was further fuelled when Dr Debono was yesterday seen conversing at some length with Opposition Leader Joseph Muscat.
While Dr Debono declined to enter into the specifics of the conversation, he admitted that the possibility of an adjournment motion was among the issues raised.
He also revealed that Dr Gonzi had been given ample notice of his intentions. “Last Monday, I told the Prime Minister that I wouldn’t accept any further delays. I also made it clear that I’d do whatever I could to ensure the justice and home affairs motion to be debated with urgency.”
But while Dr Debono was cagey about his immediate intentions – “lots of things can happen up till May 9,” – he was less equivocal about the clout of the PN’s parliamentary group and Dr Gonzi’s management skills.
“Band club committees make more decisions than the parliamentary group. It’s just a talking shop.
“The Prime Minister cannot even manage a group of 35. What would he do if he were charged with hundreds of MPs?”