New Zealanders go to the polls today, apparently in no mood for change after a tumultuous year which saw the nation shattered by a devastating earthquake and buoyed by Rugby World Cup glory.
Prime Minister John Key’s centre-right National Party holds a commanding lead in opinion polls, attracting 50-54 per cent support, compared to around 26-27.5 for the main opposition Labour Party.
Mr Key’s personal popularity is even more marked, with the former investment banker enjoying a 49-53 per cent approval rating as preferred Prime Minister, while Labour’s Phil Goff languishes on 10 to13 per cent.
Massey University political marketing expert Claire Robinson said Mr Key, who in 2008 ended nine years of Labour rule under Helen Clark, was easily the most popular politician of his generation.
“It began when the public really started taking notice of him in 2007 and it’s never really waned, it’s quite extraordinary,” she said.
“Helen Clark was popular too at her peak but she was never mobbed in shopping malls by people wanting to have her autograph.”
Mr Key’s image was enhanced by his heartfelt response to a string of disasters, including February’s Christchurch earthquake, in which 181 people died, and a mine blast which killed 29.
As Mr Key continues to bask in the afterglow of New Zealand’s recent Rugby World Cup win on home soil, Auckland University political science lecturer Joe Atkinson said the tournament’s impact on the poll should not be underestimated.
Conventional political wisdom in the rugby-mad country says that if the All Blacks don’t win the tournament, the incumbent government struggles to retain power.
Mr Atkinson said it was not that simple but the cup played into Mr Key’s hands by putting the already-popular Prime Minister in the public eye as New Zealand staged a widely acclaimed global event, while Mr Goff remained on the sidelines.
He said both parties also refrained from electioneering during the tournament, leading to a truncated four-week campaign which made it difficult for Labour to generate any momentum.
On the policy front, Mr Atkinson said the government would continue the “middle-of-the-road” liberal economic policies of the past three years.
The main policy differences between the two parties are National’s promise to partially privatise state assets, including power utilities, and Labour’s pledge to lift the retirement age from 65 to 67, which Mr Key opposes.