The Nationalist Party may be in for another unpleasant surprise when the local council election ballots are opened tomorrow as it risks losing its majorities in some councils, according to analysts.
With the general election vote swinging in favour of the Labour Party, even in some traditionally Nationalist strongholds, notably Birkirkara and Gozo, there is a strong possibility the same wave of dissent will be reflected in local elections.
The councils of Birkirkara, Valletta, Mqabba, Mellieħa, Pietà, San Ġwann and Mtarfa will be particularly under the spotlight in the 34-locality election, according to analyst Hermann Schiavone.
Three years ago, the PN only secured Birkirkara by a handful of votes. Now that it has lost its dominance there in the general election, there is a strong possibility that its majority will also go Labour’s way.
The rest of the councils, with the exception of Valletta, have seen swings both ways in the past, with the PN losing majorities in some and then winning them back.
Judging by Labour’s landslide victory in last weekend’s general election, the PN’s majority in Sliema also hangs in the balance.
The situation here could see the PN lose its majority and Labour gaining one seat, resulting in the major parties having four seats each plus a seat for Alternattiva Demokratika’s Michael Briguglio.
Mr Schiavone said he could not explain in absolute terms why the turnout for local council elections was lower than that for the general election.
Judging from the dissent shown by voters across the board, he would not be surprised that most of those who shied away from the council ballot were Nationalists.
He could not rule out that certain localities had a lower turnout because of issues pertaining to that specific locality.
“Historically, people used local council and MEP elections to send a message to the party in government, so I expect to see the PN improving its show now that it is in opposition,” he said.
When contacted, Labour Electoral Commissioner Louis Gatt said the three councils to pay particular attention to tomorrow when the counting starts were Birkirkara, Mellieħa and Santa Venera, where the PN could lose its majority.
“In these localities, Labour got the bulk of first count votes in the general election. So, if you assume people voted in the same way in the local council election, I would expect these councils to change hands,” he said.
However, he added that there were often situations where the reverse happened, so it was very difficult to predict how people voted basing on the results of a different election.
In the 2008 election, the PN regained a majority in Santa Venera after losing it three years earlier and won back the seat it had lost in Mqabba, which could now see it going to Labour.