According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016, worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years, reaching 10.8 exabytes per month – or an annual run rate of 130 exabytes – by 2016.
The expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a projected surge in the number of mobile internet-connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations). Between 2011 and 2016 Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.
The annual growth rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic is equivalent to 33 billion DVDs or 813 thousand million million text messages. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the estimated size of the entire mobile internet in 2012.
“Globally, the average mobile data connection usage per month has doubled over the past year, driven by smartphones, tablets and new ways of using the internet on mobile devices by businesses and consumers,” Cisco Malta branch manager Ruben Azzopardi explained. “This global trend is taking place in Malta too, and we are seeing Malta’s mobile service providers invest in the latest generation network infrastructure to meet the increased demand for mobile data services and content from users and businesses.”
The fastest growth will be registered in Asia and Africa, with North America and western Europe, very mature markets, seeing the lowest rate of growth.
Cisco mentioned several trends that are driving the significant increases expected in mobile traffic in the coming years.
With consumer expectations increasingly requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016.
There will be more than 10 billion mobile internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, exceeding the world’s projected population at that time of 7.3 billion. (One M2M application is the use of wireless networks to update digital billboards. This allows advertisers to display different messages based on time of day or day-of-week and allows quick global changes for messages, such as pricing changes for gasoline).
Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and able to consume and generate more data traffic. Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016, the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 will be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile data traffic in 2010.
There will be more than 10 billion mobile internet-connected devices in 2016
Mobile network connection speed is a key enabler for mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more consumption, and Cisco projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and 4G networks) to increase nine-fold from 2011 to 2016.
Mobile users want the best experiences they can have and that generally means mobile video, which will comprise 71 per cent of all mobile data traffic by 2016.
The Cisco study also forecasts that 71 per cent of all smartphones and tablets (1.6 billion) could be capable of connecting to an internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) mobile network by 2016.
From a broader perspective, 39 per cent of all global mobile devices (more than four billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016.
To address the rise in demand for the mobile internet, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed/Wi-Fi networks.
The full report is available at www.cisco.com.