On Monday, we will have either a government led by Lawrence Gonzi or one led by Joseph Muscat. The rule is very simple: the main party with the highest number of votes will form the next government.

We are not going to have an Alternattiva Demokratika government and we are not going to have a coalition government either.

If you are considering voting for Alternattiva Demokratika, please take the time to read how a member of Parliament is elected.

Malta and Gozo are divided into 13 districts. The average number of voters in a district is about 24,000. Each district elects five members of Parliament (MPs) and a candidate must get a ‘quota’ of shares to be elected. A quota is calculated by dividing the number of votes (about 24,000) by six. The quota is therefore about 4,000 votes, or 16.7 per cent of the votes in one district.

The only small party that contested the last general election, and will be contesting this election, is AD. Alleanza Nazzjonali obtained 0.5 per cent in 2008 but will not be fielding any candidates this time.

In the 2008 election, AD managed to get 1.3 per cent of the votes before being eliminated from the race. AD was strongest in the ninth, 10th and 11th district, getting 2.1 per cent, 2.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively. It was weakest in the first and sixth districts, getting 0.7 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively. To reach 16.7 per cent, AD would need to not double its 2008 vote but increase it by eight times in the ninth district, seven times in the 10th district and eight times in the 11th district. In the first district, AD would need to increase its 2008 vote by 25 times to elect an MP.

The campaign is nearly over and if you are honest with yourself you will realise that it is impossible for AD to reach the magic 16.7 per cent in any district.

You are free to vote for any party but remember that if your number 1 vote is for a party that does not have enough support to elect an MP, your vote will be wasted.

Your first preference must therefore be red or blue.