Malta’s trade volumes will grow by 105 per cent in the next 15 years to the end of 2025, according to the newly released HSBC Trade Connections, HSBC’s new quarterly global forecast.
The report predicts that Malta will remain important as a core trading route between Europe and North Africa, and increasingly to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Canada and Russia.
HSBC Trade Connections predicts that world trade volumes will grow by 73 per cent by 2025. The report says that despite the current economic climate and a partner survey of international traders showing a downturn in confidence in the short term, trade will grow by two per cent year-on-year until 2015. This is a volume increase of approximately eight per cent with international trade activity growing, on average, by just under $1 trillion a year between now and 2015.
Companies are being urged by HSBC to find the right support to capitalise on the opportunities presented by expansion in growing and developing markets, and to mitigate the short-term risks of doing business during the next five years.
Launched at a recent HSBC Trade Summit in Hamburg, HSBC Trade Connections is the first comprehensive exploration of the future opportunities for businesses operating internationally, combining trade data from around the world with lead indicators of world trade and macro-economic trend information.
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index – the largest survey of international traders globally – released alongside the forecast – finds that despite a dip in global trade confidence, the majority of respondents (84 per cent) anticipate either an increase in international trade, or consistent levels of international business activity, over the next six months.
Businesses in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE are particularly optimistic about the immediate future, showing a positive uplift in confidence on the first half of 2011.
Launching the report, Alan Keir, group managing director and global head, HSBC commercial banking, said: “Recent events have left business people feeling uncertain but one thing is clear, for businesses that are looking to grow, international trade is the real opportunity. We commissioned HSBC Trade Connections to help our customers to shape future strategy based on valuable, meaningful insight.
“What the findings tell us – that international trade is set to grow despite current economic uncertainty – is reflected in what our customers are seeing and doing every day. During 2011, the international business we are supporting has grown as we use our presence around the world to support forward thinking companies’ growth.”
Alan Richards, HSBC Malta chief executive officer said: “Companies wishing to take advantage of the opportunities international markets offer must have the right strategic partners in place to be successful.”
“These companies also need specialist trade and supply chain expertise and we are working with Maltese businesses to support them at every stage of the supply chain to provide end-to-end financial support that benefits both them and their suppliers.”
HSBC Trade Connections predicts that Egypt, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, China and Brazil will be the international powerhouses that drive world trade growth in this period. Egypt is predicted to experience the fastest growth in international trade values – albeit from a low base – of 185 per cent by 2025. This is being driven partly by the country’s redevelopment following the Arab Spring of 2011 but also because other countries around the world are seeing it as a gateway to the Middle East.
China’s bounce-back from the 2009 collapse in world trade was phenomenal and as a nation, China rose from accounting for 8.4 per cent of world trade in 2009 to 10.9 per cent of world trade in 2010. The forecast predicts China’s share of world trade will reach 13 per cent by 2025 overtaking the US as the top trading nation, driven both by commodities trading and by an increase in manufacturing in China.
As the centre of international business shifts from developed to emerging markets, HSBC Trade Connections finds today’s biggest developed trading nations are adapting how they do business to maintain their competitive advantage. This shift is creating a redistribution of the global supply chain, particularly prevalent in Europe and North America, as well as Japan.
It finds German companies, for example, are increasingly working with businesses in emerging Europe (Poland and the Czech Republic) to create strong and integrated European-based supply chains. It predicts that while Germany’s share of world trade may fall from 8.2 per cent to 7.2 per cent by 2025, these innovative approaches will help it increase total trade volumes over the period from $2,235.7 billion in 2010 to $3,495.1 billion in the same period.
HSBC is committing to facilitate $750 billion of world trade by 2013, working with international businesses to open up new markets and trade opportunities, by financing trade through innovative new products.
Michel Cordina, head of commercial banking said: “The next 15 years present European businesses, including Maltese businesses, with the opportunity to capitalise on how the world is changing. Malta gains hugely from its location within Europe and also its proximity to the key markets of the Middle East, Turkey and North Africa. At HSBC Malta we have specialised trade and supply experts to assist local businesses to take advantage from this growth tential.”