The major centre right and centre left parties in the European Parliament will enter the last week of the campaign neck and neck, according to a poll.
In its analysis of surveys conducted in each EU member state, Vote Watch Europe, a transparency organisation, has the European Popular Party ahead by only four seats on the Socialists and Democrats.
Other polls have given the EPP a more comfortable lead but the bigger question that emerges relates to the composition of the European Parliament.
Voters are expected to deliver a stronger eurosceptic element but much will depend how some of the national political parties align themselves with others in the parliament.
In its exercise, Vote Watch Europe has made a number of assumptions as to how national parties may sit in the parliament. One such example is Italy’s Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, which has not yet declared which European political group it plans to join.
Vote Watch has grouped it with Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, given its growing euroscepticism.
Vote Watch also assumed the German Pirate Party could join the far left grouping, based on the affiliation of its Austrian sister that is aligned to the communists in Austria.
However, there is one development that can be predicted with a certain level of certainty: the European Parliament will see the creation of a new political group bringing together far-right parties from across Europe.
Championed by the French National Front led by Marie Le Pen, the grouping is expected to make the threshold of having at least 25 MEPs from seven countries to form a new group.
European political groupings
GUE/NGL
European United Left/ Nordic Green Left: The far-left grouping is expected to make inroads, possibly at the Greens’s expense. It held 34 seats in the outgoing parliament. Members include Greece’s Syriza and Germany’s Die Linke.
S&D
Socialists and Democrats: The socialists currently hold 196 seats and are expected to increase their share marginally. They are neck-and-neck with the European People’s Party. The PL is part of this group with Italy’s Democratic Party led by Matteo Renzi and the UK’s Labour Party.
ALDE
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe: The liberals are still expected to remain the third largest grouping but will capture fewer seats from the 83 held in the outgoing parliament. Member organisations include the UK’s Liberal Democrat Party.
ECR
European Conservatives and Reformists: The centre-right parties in this grouping split from the EPP and adopt a more eurocritical approach. In the outgoing parliament they had 57 seats, making them the fourth largest grouping with the Greens. Members include the UK Conservative Party.
EFD
Europe of Freedom and Democracy: This eurosceptic grouping had 31 seats in the outgoing parliament and its foremost member is the UK Independence Party led by Nigel Farage. If Italy’s Five Star Movement joins, it may very well capture 64 seats.
EAF
European Alliance for Freedom: This far-right group does not exist in the outgoing parliament but is likely to form after the election helmed by France’s National Front. Other parties include Austria’s Freedom Party and Italy’s Lega Nord. It is expected to gain 39 seats.
G/EFA
Greens/European Free Alliance: The European Green Party aligns itself with regional parties that represent stateless nations such as the Scottish National Party. This grouping has 57 seats in the outgoing parliament. If elected, Alternattiva Demokratika will form part of this alliance.
EPP
European People’s Party: This brings together the centre-right parties, including Christian democrats. It became the largest party in 2009 and holds 274 seats in the outgoing parliament. The PN, Italy’s Forza Italia led by Silvio Berlusconi, and Angela Merkel’s German Christian Democrats are in it.
Independent, non-aligned: The European Parliament has a number of MEPs that are independent of any political party or are elected on a ticket with a party that has no formal alliance with a European political group. The outgoing parliament has 33 such MEPs, some of whom came from parties that will now make up the new grouping EAF (above).
ksansone@timesofmalta.com