In 2016 there will be 2.5 internet connections per person in the world and the increase in internet use alone will be almost as equal as the total amount of internet data in 2011. Internet use will explode in the coming years, especially in terms of mobile and video use.
In 2016 there will be 2.5 internet connections per person in the world
This is revealed in Cisco’s latest annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016), the company’s ongoing initiative to forecast and analyze Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide.
The VNI Forecast update covers 2011-2016, and quantitatively projects the significant amount of IP traffic expected to travel public and private networks, including managed IP, and mobile data traffic generated by consumers and business users.
By 2016, annual global IP traffic is forecast to be 1.3 zettabytes – (a zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes). The projected increase of global IP traffic between 2015 and 2016 alone is more than 330 exabytes, which is almost equal to the total amount of global IP traffic generated in 2011. This significant level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by a number of factors, including:
An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, the forecast projects there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections –almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth – compared to 10.3 billion in 2011
More users: By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion users – about 45 per cent of the world’s projected population according to United Nations estimates.
Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from nine megabits per second (Mbps) in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016. More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes – the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) – would travel the world every second.
Wi-Fi growth: By 2016, over half of the world’s traffic is expected to come from Wi-Fi connections.
Globally, there are expected to be 1.5 billion video users by 2016, up from 792 million video users in 2011.
In 2011, PCs generated 94 per cent of consumer traffic. This contribution is expected to fall to 81 per cent by 2016 – demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of devices like tablets and smartphones are having on how consumers and businesses access.
By 2016, TVs are expected to account for over six per cent of global consumer traffic (up from four per cent in 2011), and 18 per cent of video traffic (up from seven per cent in 2011) – demonstrating the impact of enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers. Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase five times between 2011 and 2016.
Global mobile data traffic is forecast to increase 18 times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually). By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic is projected to account for 54 per cent of global consumer file-sharing traffic, down from 77 per cent in 2011.
Globally, there were 1.7 billion residential users with fixed access in 2011; the index forecasts there will be 2.3 billion residential users with fixed access by 2016.
Desktop videoconferencing is projected to be the fastest-growing service, with 36.4 million users in 2011, increasing to 218.9 million users in 2016.