The economic data related to the eurozone economy for the second quarter of this year has been published. It evidences an economy that is gradually moving out of the recession that has gripped it for a number of months, even if the performance of the economy of individual countries was and remains disparate. It also shows that although progress has been made, the eurozone economy is still very fragile.

However, we have certainly made big progress since last year. This time last year, governments were dreading the possible reaction of the financial markets after the summer lull and many were predicting the disintegration of the eurozone.

Thanks to the intervention of the president of the European Central Bank and the fiscal packages introduced by a number of countries, the crisis was averted. Some are now even saying that members of the eurozone are being placed in a disadvantage because the currency’s value is too high when compared to other currencies.

So we have moved, over a period of 12 months, from a potential economic catastrophe, to an environment where one can look at the future with cautious optimism. Economists very often speak of the need to eliminate macroeconomic imbalances. The data shows that this is happening with one exception – employment.

One important way of measuring progress is by looking at the status of the external balance, that is the balance of payments data. This provides evidence of the ability of the eurozone economy to earn income from sources outside the eurozone itself, such as through exports of goods and services, income earned/paid from employment and investments of various types, and transfers such as donations and grants.

As expected, the eurozone pays out more than it earns on current transfers. With regard to income, there are times when the eurozone earns more than it pays and times when the opposite happens. The second quarter of this year was a bog improvement over last year.

However, in terms of trade in goods and services, the eurozone is performing very well. It moved from a surplus of €52 billion in the second quarter of last year to a surplus of €79 billion in the second quarter of this year. More exports of goods and services means improved competitiveness of European businesses and this starts to explain the improvement we have had in the last 12 months.

Another key indicator is the rate of inflation. The rate of inflation in the eurozone was 1.6 per cent in June this year and went down to 1.3 per cent in August.

In August of 2012, the rate of inflation was 2.6 per cent. The only sector that showed an increase in inflation is the food, alcohol and tobacco sector. A rate of inflation of 1.6 per cent is a sustainable rate.

Moreover the fact that the rate of inflation is decreasing means more macroeconomic stability and less pressures on businesses to manage costs. One must also remember that this lower rate of inflation was achieved at a time when interests rates were held at their lowest level ever.

Thus we have a very healthy balance between the rate of inflation and interest rates, which we need to keep.

The gross domestic product in the eurozone increased by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. This follows three successive quarters of negative growth. So the progress registered is evident.

Yet, as pointed out earlier, the recovery is still fragile. First, when compared to the second quarter of last year, we had a contraction of 0.5 per cent. Second, a growth rate of 0.3 per cent is so small that any one-off incident could easily wipe it out in the next quarter.

Third, growth is not evenly spread across the whole of the eurozone. Of the four largest economies in the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain), two are still on a negative trend.

Unemployment remains the most worrying aspect of the eurozone economy. Last July it reached 12.1 per cent, compared to 11.5 per cent in July last year. This means that there are 19 million persons in the eurozone who are out of a job.

The youth unemployment rate increased from 23.3 per cent to 24 per cent over the same 12 months. There are 3.5 million persons aged under 25 years who are out of a job. This data is another piece of evidence that the recovery we have had is fragile.

European leaders are right to point out the progress made and all indications are that the eurozone is moving out of the recession.

However two question marks remain. How can it be ensured that this economic recovery will not be a jobless one? How can it be ensured that all countries and all social strata in the eurozone benefit from this recovery? The European leaders must provide answers to these questions as well.