Data from the eurozone published last week confirm that a stronger economic recovery may finally be under way. The unemployment rate in the region declined to 11.3 per cent in February from 11.4 per cent the previous month and down from 11.8 per cent a year earlier.

March’s consumer prices fell by 0.1 per cent in March from a year earlier, as against a 0.3 per cent fall in February. This brings some comfort to the European Central Bank as it worries about the slump in consumer prices in the currency block.

Confidence is also picking up. The European Commission’s economic sentiment index for March, published last Tuesday, was the highest since July 2011. Moreover, a measure of output in both the manufacturing and services sectors compiled by Markit Economics, a data research firm, is at a 46-month high.

Whereas consumers are leading the recovery, as they benefit from lower energy bills, the effects of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme, which began this month, are kicking in too.

Germany’s jobless rate hit a record low of 6.4 per cent in March, provisional data showed last week. This was better than economists’ expectation of a 6.5 per cent jobless rate and was the lowest since the German reunification in 1990. In February, the German unemployment rate was 6.5 per cent.

Lower unemployment in Europe’s largest economy is a positive sign for private consumption, which is expected to underpin growth in the rest of the eurozone this year.

The continued slowdown in the growth of private sector jobs in the US in March is the latest sign that the world’s largest economy is losing steam. The private sector hired 189,000 new employees in March, less than expected. Furthermore, forecasts for the first quarter’s GDP growth have reduced to 2.2 per cent. Unusually severe winter weather in parts of the country, a port disputes in California and a decline in oil drilling may be to blame.

Investors are hoping that economic output will rebound in the next three quarters, just as it did in 2014. Low oil prices are hurting energy firms and the dollar’s strength is reducing the value of foreign earnings. These two factors may dampen growth and corporate profits in the coming quarters.

This report was compiled by Bank of Valletta plc for general information purposes only.

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