Emmanuel Macron’s triumph over Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s second round of the presidential election in France was widely expected though not something to be taken for granted. Many of us are today skeptical of opinion polls following the UK referendum on EU membership and the presidential election in the United States last year. At the end of the day, Macron did even better than what was being predicted, winning over 66 per cent of the votes cast.
Macron will take office on Sunday as the new president of France, ushering in a new political season for the country as this is the first time that the Fifth Republic will have a head of state who does not hail from either of the two major political parties – the Republican or the Socialist.
The candidates of these two parties were knocked out of the race in the first round and will have to wait and see whether this result will somehow be reflected in the parliamentary elections that will take place in France in a few weeks’ time.
Macron was not the only victor last Sunday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also had reason to celebrate as her Christian Democrat Union (CDU) came in first place in the state election held in Schleswig-Holstein, overtaking the Social Democrats which had been governing the state with the Greens and the SSW, a regional party representing the Danish and Frisian minorities. This was the second victory in a row for the CDU and boosts the Chancellor’s chances of winning a fourth term in September’s federal elections.
Unlike France, where the far right National Front won 21.3 per cent and 33 per cent in the first and second round respectively, in Schleswig-Holstein, though managing to make it into the state legislature for the first time, the populist Alternative for Germany did not score a significant result.
Combined with the result of the Dutch elections in March, this makes it a hat trick in terms of negative electoral results for populist parties in this cycle of elections across the European continent. There remains some uncertainty whether the French President elect will secure a parliamentary majority that will back his agenda and programme. However, it is very unlikely that a eurosceptic majority will emerge from the legislative elections on June 18.
The only way for the ‘European project’ to succeed is by reinforcing the notion of an ‘ever closer union’ among the peoples of Europe
With Macron secure in the Élysée for at least the next five years, and irrespective of whether it will be Chancellor Merkel once again or Martin Schulz, there is some cause for optimism about the future course of Europe despite its having to come to terms with Brexit.
At least, this was the underlying message that was being put forward by most of the speakers at the State of the Union Conference in Florence I attended last week.
The EU 27 has come to terms with Brexit. We are sadly resigned to the fact that the United Kingdom will leave the EU and that this will happen sooner rather than later. The UK general election on June 8 does give us some clue that, however, it is the British themselves, who have not yet come to terms with leaving the EU. Theresa May is requesting a strong mandate to pursue her apparently tough stand in the negotiations that will only commence really and truly after the election. She will probably get it. The EU, on the other hand, seems to know what it wants and, indeed, it only took EU leaders a few minutes to agree on the framework for the Brexit negotiations and set out the overall EU position and principles.
According to the guidelines approved on April 29, there will be two phases in the negotiations: the first phase will aim at providing “as much clarity and legal certainty as possible” as well as to “settle the disentanglement of the UK from the EU”. Once sufficient progress has been made on these matters, the EU is willing “to start preliminary and preparatory discussions” on the future relationship of the UK and the EU, making it very clear that an agreement on such framework “can only be concluded once the UK has become a third country”.
However, as the EU negotiates Brexit, it also needs to come to terms with its own future. As Macron celebrated his victory on Sunday, one could not but note the significance of the playing of the European anthem – Beethoven’s Ode to Joy and the many European flags waved by his jubilant supporters.
Writing in Britain’s The Guardian, Natalie Nougayrède, former executive editor and managing editor of Le Monde, said: “Playing the Ode to Joy was not just timely, it was the most meaningful, inspiring symbol Macron could choose. Just on the eve of France’s ceremonies marking the anniversary of victory over Nazism, it was clear reminder of what was at stake, and not just in one country or region. It was especially astute in an era where fake news and democratic fatigue in western societies have fed a degree of moral relativism mixed with amnesia.”
On Tuesday, we celebrated Europe Day which marks the date when the then French foreign minister Robert Schuman, proposed the setting up of a European Coal and Steel Community “as a first step in the federation of Europe”. Today, 67 years after Schuman’s declaration, the EU is at a crossroads in terms of its future path.
President Macron will certainly inject new blood into the process for a renewal of the EU. In his victory speech, he pledged to defend Europe, describing it as “the common destiny the peoples of our continent have given themselves”. He also committed himself to work “to rebuild the link between Europe and the people it’s made up of, between Europe and citizens”.
I firmly believe that to rebuild this link, it is vital that people from all walks of life are invited to contribute in a genuine discussion on what the EU represents as well as on its future. The only way for the ‘European project’ to succeed is by reinforcing the notion of an ‘ever-closer union’ among the peoples of Europe, a Europe which, as stated recently by Pope Francis, “finds new hope when man is the centre and the heart of her institutions”.