Total greenhouse gas emissions by China and other emerging nations will surpass those of rich nations this decade, complicating UN talks about who is most to blame for global warming, a study shows.

Developing nations accounted for 48 per cent of cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010, according to the study by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, research group Ecofys and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.

Somewhere in the current decade the share of the cumul-ative historical emissions of deve-loping countries will surpass that of developed countries.

Developing nations’ emissions are rising fast. Their share of cumulative emissions will reach 51 per cent by 2020.

Almost 200 governments will meet in Warsaw from November 11 to 22 to discuss plans for a new, global deal to fight climate change to enter into force from 2020.

Discussions at the UN climate negotiations tend to focus on which countries have contributed most to climate change.

The biggest emitters since 1850, taken as the start of widespread industrial use of fossil fuels, were the United States, China, the EU and Russia, the study said.

China, with 1.3 billion inhabit-ants, argues that its per capita emissions since 1850 are still far below those of developed nations, meaning it has less responsibility to rein in emissions.

PBL Netherlands Environment-al Assessment Agency said world emissions of CO2 rose by just 1.1 per cent in 2012 to 34.5 billion tonnes, a slowdown from annual gains averaging 2.9 per cent since 2000. “This is remarkable, as the global economy grew by 3.5 per cent,” it said.