I can’t hide my disappointment at the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. The polls were clearly wrong, suggesting perhaps that many Trump supporters were reluctant to admit they would vote for their candidate. And the defeat of Hillary Clinton is sad as she was by far the better and more qualified candidate.
President Barack Obama certainly deserves credit for the dignified speech he gave the day after Mr Trump’s victory – when he showed the world how a peaceful transfer of power is carried out in America, despite very strong differences between him and the President-elect.
One point that needs to be stressed about this election is the fact that Mrs Clinton won the popular vote by more than 400,000 votes, with 47.7 per cent compared to Trump’s 47.4 per cent, but lost the Electoral College vote. This is the second time this has happened in the post-war period – in 2000, Democrat Al Gore got more votes than Republican George W Bush, but Mr Bush won the presidency. This system is unrepresentative and needs to be reformed. Nevertheless, Mrs Clinton’s concession speech was very gracious, and this says a great deal about her.
There are a number of factors that led to Mr Trump’s victory. The Republican candidate targeted three states that have voted Democrat in the last six presidential elections, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These three states, together with the battleground state of Ohio (which he also won) form part of the so-called ‘rust belt’ where many traditional industries have gone out of business and many white working-class voters feel let down by globalisation. Mr Trump, by promising to be their champion, won all four states, as well as the swing states of Florida and North Carolina.
Another factor is Mrs Clinton herself, who was associated with the ‘Establishment’, and her support of unpopular international trade accords. In a country where many people are fed up with the status quo and ‘politics as usual’, many voters preferred to vote for Mr Trump, who ran as an outsider.
Furthermore, many people had a negative image of Mrs Clinton and believed she was a dishonest person. And the bizarre FBI announcement of yet another probe into her e-mails 11 days before the election certainly did not help her, even though she was cleared of any wrongdoing two days before the vote.
A third major cause of Mrs Clinton’s defeat is the fact that a large majority of white male voters backed Mr Trump. He played on voters’ fears over immigration, and some of his comments unfortunately rekindled racist and divisive sentiments in America. This is indeed very unfortunate, and Mr Trump must understand that as President he cannot make xenophobic comments similar to the ones he made on the campaign trail.
Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 400,000 votes
The President-elect, did, however, made a reasonably good acceptance speech when he won the election, and was gracious towards Mrs Clinton. He promised to “represent every citizen of our land” and to continue engaging with the world. He also said it was “time for America to bind the wounds of division”.
There is without doubt a lot of apprehension within the international community about the Trump presidency. In his campaign he promised to renegotiate a number of trade agreements that America is a signature to; he also undermined Nato, promised to build a wall along the Mexican border, called for a Muslim ban from America and opposed both the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the nuclear deal with Iran.
Such policies would be hugely destabilising for the international economic and political order, but we will just have to wait and see what Mr Trump really believes in. Perhaps the pragmatic business side of him will take precedence over some of the right-wing populist views he espoused in the campaign.
We will have a better idea of his foreign and economic policy direction when he announces key appointments such as Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, National Security Adviser, Chief of Staff and Defence Secretary. Hopefully there will be enough level-headed Republicans (or independents or even Democrats) willing to serve in such positions.
From the day he takes office Mr Trump will be tested by the likes of Vladimir Putin, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Kim Jong-un, Isis and al-Qaeda. I sincerely hope he has a competent foreign policy team around him to enable him to make the right decisions.
There has been quite a lot of concern expressed that civil liberties, the rule of law and democracy in the US could suffer as a result of the Trump presidency. This is understandable considering some of Mr Trump’s outrageous comments when he was running for President.
It could be a testing time for America’s independent institutions but I sincerely hope that America’s system of checks and balances, its Constitution, its strong democratic traditions, its courts, and its Congress (even though Republican-controlled) will hold the new President to account.
Is there a silver lining in this election? Well, Mr Trump did not win the popular vote, so he will have to make a particular effort to be a President for all Americans. Also, Mrs Clinton won a large majority of voters in the 18 to 45 age group (55 per cent compared to 37 per cent for Trump) so that bodes well for the future. Furthermore this result will hopefully energise the Democratic Party, make it more progressive and encourage it to choose a presidential candidate from outside the Establishment next time.
Finally there is potential for improved US-Russian ties if Mr Trump plays his cards right with Mr Putin. Maybe, just maybe, for example, the Russians will convince Mr Trump to stick to the Iranian nuclear deal, which was a huge achievement of the Obama administration, the result of close collaboration between the US, Russia, EU, UK, France, China and Germany – and very good for business, which is something Mr Trump should appreciate.