The world is still trying to come to terms with the shock victory in the US presidential election of Donald Trump who won a comfortable majority of Electoral College votes but nevertheless lost badly in the popular vote.
Believe it or not, the votes in some large states are still being counted and Hillary Clinton is beating Mr Trump by a large margin – at least one million votes – which is actually expected to increase. To us in Europe the result looks very unrepresentative, and the American people will have to decide whether they want to maintain the Electoral College system or go for an election based on the popular vote.
What should the international community expect from a Trump presidency? Trump did not say much about foreign policy during the campaign, so we’ll really have to wait and see, but the little he said was worrying. He undermined Nato, criticised China unfairly, expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said he opposed the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Climate Change Agreement, and stressed that the focus in Syria should only be on defeating Isis.
Furthermore, his rhetoric towards various minorities and women as well as the causal way in which he said Clinton would have been in jail had he been in charge of law and order was also very disturbing, as this suggests a move away from certain liberal democratic values, which could have a bearing on foreign policy.
Who Trump appoints to his foreign policy team will send out an important message to the world. He has already offered the job of national security advisor to retired Army Lt Gen. Michael Flynn, who supported him throughout the campaign. Flynn has a long history of controversial remarks, is a right-winger and was fired as President Barack Obama’s director of the Defence Intelligence Agency in 2014, so such an appointment is not at all encouraging.
However, media reports are also stating that there is a chance of Trump appointing Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican candidate, as Secretary of State. Romney had sharply criticised Trump during the campaign, calling him a “fake” and a “phony”, but in politics anything is possible. Romney would be an excellent choice as Secretary of State as it would send out the right signal that America is to continue with its policy of global engagement. Also, who can forget Romney’s famous claim during one of the presidential debates with Obama in 2012 that Russia was America’s number one “geopolitical threat”? I hope that Romney is appointed Secretary of State, but somehow I am not really convinced this will happen. We’ll just have to wait and see.
However, if Romney or anyone else from the moderate Republican establishment is appointed as the US’s top diplomat this would serve as an important balance to Flynn, and we can surely expect some clashes between the two. This would be similar to the expected clashes to emerge between Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, appointed White House Chief of Staff, and Stephen Bannon, a right-wing media executive, who has been named Trump’s senior counsellor and chief strategist, and whose appointment shocked many Americans.
China could assume a leadership role on climate change, which will greatly enhance Bejing’s reputation around the world as a responsible international player
The big question everyone is asking in Europe is whether Trump will remain committed to Nato and the transatlantic alliance, which has been the cornerstone of US and European foreign policy in the post-war era, and which has kept the peace in Europe throughout this period. President Obama had some reassuring words for America’s European allies last week as he left for a trip to Greece and Germany, when he said that Trump had told him he was firmly committed to the Nato alliance.
These are fine words but Europe will obviously want to hear them from Trump himself, especially since the President-elect is believed to be an admirer of Putin. Hopefully, Trump will listen to his Republican Party on this matter, which remains largely pro-Nato. In the meantime, however, Europe should prepare for the worst, integrate its security and defence policy and boost its military spending.
America’s future relations with Russia are also on everyone’s mind. Of course, better ties between Washington and Moscow is desirable and the two countries can achieve a lot together. However, as President Obama said during his visit to Berlin: “I don’t expect that the President-elect will follow exactly our blueprint or our approach. My hope is that he does not simply take a ‘realpolitik’ approach” and “cut deals with Russia, even if it hurts people” that are “convenient at the time”.
Obama added: “I’ve sought a constructive relationship with Russia but I’ve also been realistic in recognising there are some significant differences in how Russia views the world and how we view the world.” Trump, he said, should be “willing to stand up to Russia where they are deviating from our values and international norms.”
Trump’s first challenges with Russia will be in Syria and Ukraine, where a fresh approach could be useful, but not at the expense of capitulating to Moscow. In Syria, working with Russia against Islamic State could prove beneficial, but not if this means turning a blind eye to the terrible atrocities taking place in Aleppo or abandoning the Free Syrian Army or the Syrian Kurds. And in Ukraine, addressing Russian’s security concerns in the east of the country does not mean withdrawing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity or removing sanctions on Moscow without getting anything in return.
I sincerely hope that Trump will look at the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal with an open mind. America turning its back on the Paris deal, which is now part of international law, would not only greatly endanger the world’s environment, but will leave the US isolated globally. In such a scenario, China could assume a leadership role on climate change, which will greatly enhance Bejing’s reputation around the world as a responsible international player.
Trump’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal would be very dangerous, extremely counterproductive and would leave the US isolated in the United Nations Security Council, which approved the deal. The UN will not reimpose sanctions on Iran, and should Washington go along that path it will not only lose out on business opportunities in the country – which the rest of the world will take advantage of – but could boost the prospects of hardliners in next year’s presidential election in Iran, who always thrive when America is antagonistic towards Teheran. Adopting a hardline attitude towards Shi’ite Iran could also deprive the US of a potential valuable ally against Isis.
Trump’s other major challenges include possible renegotiations of trade deals with Mexico, Canada and China, which is what he promised in the campaign. The world economy certainly cannot afford any trade wars, so the US will have to be very careful, and does Trump really want to quarrel with China, which is owed $1.185 trillion in debt by Washington?
North Korea will be a huge challenge to the Trump administration. It has conducted several tests with nuclear bombs, and sooner or later it will announce that it has made a nuclear warhead small enough to fit onto a missile. What then? How will Trump react? Will he remain faithful to America’s treaty obligations to South Korea and Japan? Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who met Trump last Thursday, said he has “great confidence” in the US President-elect and he believes they can build a relationship of trust. This is encouraging, but we will have to wait and see.
There are so many other foreign policy challenges, but a particularly important one is dealing with the Muslim world. Trump must be careful not to associate Islam with terrorism, as this would fall into Isis’s trap as serve as a recruitment tool for radical jihadism. As for his policy towards the Middle East peace process we know absolutely nothing except that Trump promised to move the US Embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – a bad move which will only send the wrong signal to the Palestinians.