In Strasbourg I watched Jean-Claude Juncker delivering his annual State of the Union speech. The president of the European Commission was unashamedly ambitious.
The “wind is back in Europe’s sails”, he told a packed European Parliament. Then his rallying cry for action: “Let’s set sail and catch the wind.”
What followed was a call for deeper EU integration. Juncker urged an end to member states’ veto powers and tighter EU integration based around the eurozone and the Schengen open-border system. Centralisation is what Juncker has in mind.
There was talk of Brexit too. The UK’s withdrawal from the EU would be missed he told his audience, but Brexit is Brexit, and then called for a March 2019 EU summit in Romania – one of Europe’s most deprived member states. That was a clever move by the commission’s president – it will coincide with Brexit day, and that would be his attempt towards a more federal EU.
But the outcome of the German elections and the reluctance by member states for a more federal EU are hurdles he must overcome if he is to make the March Romania summit Europe’s turning point towards a more federal EU.
Angela Merkel and her French counterpart Emanuel Macron are said to be working on a reform of the euro area and common defence. But the French are unlikely to give up sovereign control over tax, security and foreign policy. The Germans are said to have grown wary of the EU commission as an institution.
Juncker’s ambitious plans might backfire
And many EU leaders prefer keeping a hand on the tiller. There is undoubtedly lack of convergence in economic performance between the eurozone’s stronger and weaker states. Southern member states are known to expect less rigid policies than their northern counterparts.
The aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis has deepened the gap between living standards in the EU’s northern and southern member states.
They won’t take kindly to Juncker’s plan for a more closely tied EU which includes the removal of national vetoes over taxation, social and foreign policy.
In short – Juncker’s vision of a federal Europe will pit Brussels against many of its member states. Which explains why Juncker’s plans for a more closely tied EU are destined to fail.
Moving from unanimous to majority decisions in areas such as energy, taxation and social and foreign policies (the EU treaty already foresees that possibility – called passerelles in EU-speak) requires consent from all EU states. That is hard to come by.
Malta would definitely object to his deeper integration plans, especially on matters relating to taxation.
Finance Minister Edward Scicluna called Juncker’s tax scheme “unrealistic”, and that “nobody is willing to set aside national sovereignty at whim”.
I don’t blame him.
Juncker also called for a harmonised company tax across the 28-country bloc, something that Malta and other small states have consistently opposed.
Which explains why Juncker’s’ ambitious plans might backfire.
His push towards a closely tied, federal Europe might antagonise member states to the extent that they shut him out on other important decisions that need to be taken by the EU, not least its fight against terrorism and in facing the ever-increasing challenge of illegal migration.
Frank Psaila is a lawyer and anchors Iswed fuq l-Abjad on NET TV.