The three cities battling it out to win today’s vote to stage the 2020 Olympics are all struggling to overcome negative aspects that could torpedo their bids.
Tokyo’s bid goes into the final stages of the contests as favourite narrowly ahead of Madrid, according to some of 100 or so members of the IOC who will vote today.
Both cities and the third rival Istanbul have issues to deal with if they are to convince the IOC.
Experienced lobbyists at the IOC session in Buenos Aires say they have never known a congress where so many members have been undecided on the host city.
Istanbul had long been viewed as the most likely candidate with its attractive story of a chance to take the Olympics to a secular Muslim country for the first time.
But the Turkish city has suffered a series of hammer blows to its chances, beginning with the protests – some on proposed Olympic venues – that rocked Istanbul earlier this summer.
This was followed by a major doping scandal, the fall-out from the jailing of a number of journalists and political opponents of the Turkish government, and now the threat of a major war in neighbouring Syria – all providing IOC members with reasons to look elsewhere.
Madrid is the other European candidate, but from the start of the campaign it has struggled to deal with the issue of the Spanish economy, with unemployment running at 25 per cent and many workers having to endure severe pay cuts.
Madrid’s response has been to focus its bid on proposing a low-cost, austerity Olympics, using many existing venues and spending around a quarter of the money that went on staging the London 2012 Games.
Its presentation at a meeting of IOC members in July received many plaudits, and Madrid has political muscle and has shown its desire by bidding for both the 2012 and 2016 Games.
Tokyo’s bid was initially viewed as being too far below the radar, but it benefited from the bad publicity that has struck its rivals.
The Japanese capital has itself suffered a blow in recent weeks with fresh concerns over the leak of radioactive material from the Fukushima nuclear plant.
Tokyo 2020 has reacted by sending a letter to all IOC members seeking to allay fears about Fukushima – a clear indication it is a negative issue for the bid.
The vote takes place this afternoon in Buenos Aires with the result due to be announced very late in the day.
Meanwhile, outgoing president Jacques Rogge has conceded the IOC can do little to influence Russia’s anti-gay laws ahead of the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi.
Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a law in June making it illegal to give under-18s information about homosexuality. The move has been widely condemned and has led to calls for a boycott of next year’s event.
Rogge said: “We have received some oral and written assurances about the fact the Russian Federation will respect the Olympic charter and no negative effect will occur for people attending in or participating in the Games.
“But one should not forget that we are staging the Games in a sovereign state and the IOC cannot be expected to have an influence on the sovereign affairs of a country.”