The mild weather that greeted the New Year in Britain has already caused some daffodils to trumpet their arrival and vie with the snowdrop to be the first amaryllis to adorn 2012.

Some species of daffodil have bloomed already, as early as December in a few cases, chiefly but not exclusively in south and southwest England. That is one or two months earlier than usual.

Noting such natural phenomena – first flowerings, first leaves, first cuckoos, first bees – is a useful means of spotting trends, if any, and relating them with weather. Natural behaviour is driven chiefly by length and strength of sunlight but modified by things such as temperature and rainfall. Of course, to spot useful trends one needs lengthy records; so it is fortunate that the discipline was instigated in 1736 by Robert Marsham who made observations of 27 different signs in and around his country estate at Stratton Strawless.

He kept an assiduous log for 60 years until a year or so before his death in 1797, aged 89. It is due to him that we know that the winter of 1739-40 was harsh enough to freeze both beer on its kitchen shelf and the contents of chamber pots under his beds.