The Budget is likely to be held in the last week of November with the crucial vote of approval taken seven days later.
Sources told The Times the two probable dates mentioned so far were November 26 and 28 as the Government was trying to avoid disrupting the Christmas shopping period.
An analysis carried out by The Times on the timeframes involved shows that a casual election to replace European Commissioner-designate Tonio Borg in the Maltese Parliament can be held on November 30 at the earliest, assuming the nomination process in Brussels flows smoothly.
If the Government opts for an end-November Budget it would have one MP missing in the House but the vote would be taken a week later, in December, when the vacant seat is filled.
A statement made by Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi on Sunday seemed to open up the possibility of the Budget being presented on December 3.
Dr Gonzi said the Budget would be presented after the process of nominating Dr Borg to the Brussels executive was over and a new MP has replaced him in the House of Representatives.
Traditionally, the Opposition leader delivers his reaction to the Budget a week after it is presented, with the Prime Minister rounding off the debate two days later, when a vote is then taken.
If the Government waits for Dr Borg’s seat to be filled before presenting the Budget it would push the vote to the second week of December.
Nationalist backbencher Franco Debono has said he will vote against the Budget, a move that could force Dr Gonzi to call an election.
This would likely be held at the end of February or the beginning of March.
Tonio Borg nomination is key to timing
Dr Borg’s nomination process kicks off with a hearing on November 13. He will be grilled by MEPs, especially those who sit on committees dealing with the health and consumer affairs portfolios Dr Borg will take on as commissioner.
After the hearing, the committee coordinators will hold an internal discussion and issue a joint declaration outlining their opinion on Dr Borg.
If MEPs at the hearing have no significant problem with Dr Borg’s nomination, the next step would be approval by the European Parliament plenary.
This would happen sometime between November 19 and 22 when the plenary is scheduled to meet in Strasbourg.
Given the particular circumstances of Dr Borg’s nomination in the wake of John Dalli’s resignation, the heads of the political groupings may decide to schedule the discussion and vote early, on November 20.
An important indication of how the plenary vote will go may emerge a week before when the presidents of the political groupings meet to set out the agenda. If the European Parliament approves Dr Borg on November 20, the next and final step could happen two days later.
A mere formality, the nomination will have to be approved by the Council, which brings together ministers from the member states.
A Council meeting on educational affairs is scheduled for November 22. If Dr Borg resigns from Parliament on the same day as the Council’s approval, President George Abela will kick off the process for a casual election to fill the vacated seat.
The maximum timeframes for a casual election are set out in the law, but based on past experience, the Electoral Commission could conclude the process in eight days.
This means a casual election on the eighth district would be held on November 30, just in time for Dr Borg’s replacement to assume his parliamentary duties in the week when MPs vote on the Budget.
However, if Dr Borg’s final approval by the Council is remanded to November 26, when the general affairs council meets, the timings could very well mean the Budget will be pushed further into December.
Who will take Tonio Borg’s parliamentary seat?
In the last election Tonio Borg was elected on the eighth and eleventh districts. He retained the eighth, which comprises Birkirkara.
A casual election could see the unelected Nationalist Party candidates contest the vacated seat. The candidates include Michael Asciak, Josianne Cardona Gatt, Ian Castaldi Paris, Martin Fenech and Giorgio Schembri.
If he chooses to contest, Dr Asciak, a former MP, is likely to inherit most of Dr Borg’s votes and take his place.