Divorce proceedings are usually acrimonious but bigger ships tend to weather storms better. Throughout its Imperial history Britain had adopted a policy of isolation and keeping Europe weak. When it was eventually accepted into the post-war European Economic Community it never really sat comfortably in its seat. It bickered throughout in efforts to keep cutting itself special deals while forging an alliance of its own with former colonies with dominant Anglo Saxon populations, especially in foreign policy, which is so inextricably linked these days to economics.
Following the “leave” vote the first cracks of unity have ironically surfaced, not on the continent but in the British Isles, with a powerful backlash in Scotland and Northern Ireland. There is talk of another type of Brexit, from Britain itself, in order to rejoin Europe. Scotland and Wales in turn have never felt too comfortable with English dominance on their island.
The British vote was also divided on generational lines, the older generation choosing a draconian measure that would ultimately affect the younger one the most. Yet more dramatic irony in the fact that a million British retirees in Spain may find themselves without access to public health care, while Britons who can are queuing for Irish passports. What about the 120,000 Gibraltarians who commute to Spain for work: are their jobs in peril? Spain, with its newfound leverage, has already asked for joint control of the island.
Cracks are also showing in party structures in Britain, with resignations and power struggles between the right and left in both Labour and Conservative parties, while the Scottish Party Leader has already crossed the channel for talks.
Yet no one is talking about Nigel Farage and his ilk resigning their seats in the European Parliament now that the Leave vote has triumphed. If they are consistent, they should avoid hypocrisy and put their salary where their mouth is by leaving immediately, as did the British Commissioner. But the real problem here is that judging from their own speeches the UKIP agenda is not just to leave Europe, but to break it up; very reminiscent of old British imperialist policy.
As London tries to steady its ship, Brussels cannot be left hanging in limbo
To be sure, the EU is not without problems of its own, as many people are feeling that it has been drifting away from its original vision and social commitments, and fast becoming a supranational state with a democracy deficit. Negotiating the TTIP trade deal with the US behind closed doors has reinforced these fears.
Maybe power structures in Brussels also need to be shaken up, with the Council of Ministers and Parliament grabbing a bigger share and the unelected technocrats of the Commission a smaller one. Parliament has traditionally had its ears closer to the ground of public sentiment and further from the increasing power of transnational interest groups in Brussels, whose priority is profit and not the European dream.
The saga has also highlighted the enormous influence of mainstream media, which seems to have been more influential in the referendum outcome than the political parties themselves.
While the options of the EU remain largely wide, those of the UK may have narrowed considerably. London might lose its seat to Frankfurt as the financial capital of Europe. Westminster has to initiate Brexit, while David Cameron has ruled out a second referendum.
But he is on his way out, and members of Parliament are in a quandary because they have to endorse the referendum result against their own political convictions. So an early election and a second referendum may be in the offing. But the latter will have to happen before Scotland leaves for it to stand any chance of a different outcome.
Meanwhile, as London tries to steady its ship, Brussels cannot be left hanging in limbo. Only the UK can trigger article 50, yet it is effectively already out of the European decision making process. If Britain fails to reach a settlement on its divorce within two years of triggering article 50, it may leave with no settlement at all. And there’s the rub.
On the foreign policy front things are changing fast. Some, like Katrina Vanden Heuvel, in the Washington Post, are arguing that Brexit may actually reduce cold war tensions largely fuelled by the Anglo Saxon nations. Heavyweights Italy and France are talking of revising sanctions against Russia, which are hurting European business, Greece too.
Last week the German Foreign Minister sharply criticised Nato “sabre rattling”. A Pew poll held last month shows widespread public disapproval of current European policy on Russia, while Turkey, who were brazen enough to shoot down a Russian plane and beat its war drums, has suddenly apologised and seems to be mending fences too.
While Europe needs time for serious reflection, Britannia’s new captain will certainly be entering uncharted waters, both internal and those of the open sea, to steer through the waves it once ruled.