It is said that Osama bin Laden prophesised that if he were killed “a hundred Osamas will rise to take his place”. The recent happenings in Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Iraq, the sectarian clashes in Lebanon and the insecurity in Afghanistan seem to be proving him right.
The so-called Arab Spring started in 2010 as a result of a series of protests against the ruling corrupt regimes in the Middle East and North Africa.
The catalyst event which brought about these demonstrations was the self-immolation of Tunisian Mohammed Bouazizi on December 17, 2010 in protest against police ill-treatment of his family. It sparked protests everywhere around Tunisia and then these spread quickly to other Muslim countries.
The Tunisian president Ben Ali fled the country in January 2011, the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned in February 2011, the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in August 2011. Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh signed the power transfer deal with the opposition which paved the way to presidential elections in February 2012. Other Islamic countries experienced similar turbulences with varying results of successes or failures.
For a time the illusion existed among these protesters (and even independent outside observers) that the countries affected by the Arab Spring could in the long run emulate the successes of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan in Turkey who managed to win three consecutive freely held elections on the basis of having successfully managed the country with a fast-growing liberal economy under a secular constitution but an Islamic government.
However, this optimistic vision has lately been tarnished as Erdogan tried to move to a harder form of authoritarian and Islamic rule which resulted in waves of anti-government protests in Turkey.
In consequence of what was happening in Turkey there was a spillover of similar protests against President Mohamed Morsi in Egypt for the very same reasons which drove thousands of protesters to Istanbul’s Taksim Gezi Park – the belief that secular/democratic rule should never give way to authoritarian/religious government.
There are some truths which in the diplomatic world are never freely expressed in public. One such opinion that is fast gaining ground in the international community is that Islam and democratic practices do not mix comfortably. Wherever one looks in the Islamic world the situation is one of instability and confusion.
Egypt’s liberals and secularists are fully justified to be angry at the way President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood sought to hijack the nation’s popular revolution
Turkey has already been mentioned. In Libya, armed militias run by extremists have filled a void that felled a dictator. In Syria, a popular uprising has been taken over by Islamic extremists and morphed into a civil war with an estimated 100,000 dead so far.
In Egypt there was bloodshed in the streets and squares and a state of emergency was declared as deep polarisation between contrasting opponents, mainly on religious grounds, gathered momentum. In Tunisia a simmering anger against the Government is gradually developing against a background of deep disappointment at the failure of its own Arab Spring.
Where will it end? Mohammed El Baradei, the Nobel Peace laureate who had served for a short period as vice-president of Egypt after the toppling of President Morsi and had thereby lent a civilian moderate face to the military people who had taken over the reins of government, resigned in protest after the killings of pro-Morsi demonstrators in Cairo.
“I cannot bear the responsibility for one drop of blood,” he wrote in his letter of resignation.
So far the US and the EU have walked the tight rope, a balancing act in a situation of irreconcilable views and issues. Egypt, the West’s most important ally in the Arab world, is too vital to throw to the dogs.
President Barack Obama has gone through the motions of making formal protests at the killings of demonstrators by government forces in Egypt.
Obama has as a consequence of all this cancelled the scheduled joint military exercises with Egypt. At the same time he also continues to insist that American engagement with the Egyptian military would still help in fostering democracy.
As a result, Obama still declines to call the military takeover in Egypt a coup. Calling it a coup would, of course, mean that the US would be obliged in terms of its own laws to withdraw the $1.3 billion in annual support it gives to Egypt. This could, in turn, result in the ruling regime in Egypt shedding all remaining restraints by going through the whole hog towards full military dictatorship.
Given this situation, the EU, which has rarely shown any independent opinion from that generally adopted by the US, needs to take the high moral ground required of it in the circumstances. Many are aware that Egypt’s liberals and secularists are fully justified to be concerned and angry at the way President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood sought to hijack the nation’s popular revolution of 2011.
However, the path to military rule should also be strongly resisted by the West. It is true that Egypt and its stability will in the foreseeable future remain the linchpin of security in the region, but strategic considerations should never overshadow the moral case for resisting undemocratic rule. There is still scope in believing in the Arab Spring.