British Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives could end up with most seats in May’s general election but will once again be denied an overall parliamentary majority. Photo: Reuters

Britain votes in a general election on May 7 and the polls indicate that the most likely outcome will be another hung Parliament. I would personally not like to see either the Conservatives or Labour win an overall majority of seats, as I don’t trust the former on Europe or the latter on the economy.

However, the success of any future coalition government will depend on which two (or possibly three) parties decide to team up together. The outgoing coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats has on the whole been successful and despite having clear differences on a number of economic and social issues, the two parties rose to the occasion, made compromises in the national interest and managed the economy quite well.

By sticking together, even though they sometimes quarrelled between themselves, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats ensured that the country enjoyed a stable government for a full five years. This is quite an achievement considering that the coalition was the first for Britain since 1945 and many observers were sceptical about it lasting intact.

Under this coalition government unemployment has fallen, the deficit and national debt have been curtailed and the economic growth figures have been positive. However, the Opposition Labour party stresses that people are still not better off than they were five years ago, mainly due to a lowering of living standards and an increase in the cost of living. Labour has also been sharply critical of the way the National Health Service has fared over the last five years.

The main issues in this election are without doubt the economy, the NHS, employment, immigration and Britain’s future in the European Union. The latest average of polls shows the Conservatives on 33 per cent, Labour 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats seven per cent (drastically down from 23 per cent in 2010), Ukip 14 per cent and the Greens seven per cent.

The Scottish Nationalists, furthermore, are poised for a massive victory in Scotland, which will almost certainly deprive Labour of an overall majority of parliamentary seats. One poll has indicated that the SNP could actually win 56 out of Scotland’s 59 seats, taking 40 seats from Labour.

Mathematically, a coalition government between Labour and the Scottish Nationalists is possible, although it would be extremely awkward for Labour to govern with a party that is committed to the breakup of the United Kingdom.

Most polls show that the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck in the popular vote, although the latest poll from The Guardian now shows the Tories gaining a relative majority of seats, just slightly ahead of Labour. And according to the latest YouGov opinion survey, Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives have a four percentage point lead over Labour, whose leader, Ed Milliband, has failed to impress the electorate.

The Liberal Democrats are expected to lose at least half their parliamentary seats (perhaps even more), which means that another coalition between them and the Conservatives is probably not possible, as the numbers will simply not add up.

The main issues in this election are the economy, the NHS, employment, immigration and Britain’s future in the European Union

Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats, who entered government for the first time since 1931, are paying the price for joining the Conservatives in a coalition, although I believe they have been a positive influence within the government. However, the Liberal Democrats are good campaigners and while their share of the vote will undoubtedly go down, I don’t think it will decrease to such a low level as seven per cent, as the latest average of polls indicates.

The rise of the anti-EU Ukip is an important factor in this election. It has exploited resentment among a large section of the electorate over the EU as well as concerns over immigration, two issues which have not been properly addressed by the mainstream parties. The polls show that it has about 14 per cent support among voters, a massive increase from the three per cent it won five years ago.

Although due to Britain’s first past the post system it is unlikely to win more than one or two seats, there is no doubt that it will have a major impact of the overall electoral result. Ukip takes votes from both Labour and the Conservatives, probably more from the latter, but will be a major factor in preventing either party from gaining an absolute majority of seats.

The so-called ‘Green surge’ is also an important factor and this party’s support at the polls has reached close to seven per cent, compared to 0.9 per cent at the 2010 election. It is likely to retain its one seat, and not gain any additional ones, but it will take votes from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, which could help the Conservatives in marginal seats.

This could turn out to be a very interesting election with once again no overall winner but with new kingmakers around. If the Conservatives continue to gain in the polls, however slightly, and Labour’s support remains frozen, it is likely that the Tories will obtain the most seats in the election but will once again have to look for a coalition partner.

The options, however, are limited as the Liberal Democrats are unlikely to have enough seats to form a parliamentary majority with the Conservatives. A third party will be needed, either as a coalition partner or to support a minority government, such as the Ulster Unionists, but it is unlikely that these three parties will enjoy an overall majority.

Labour on the other hand, might be able to form a majority with the Scottish Nationalists, and if the figures don’t add up, might propose a three-party coalition with the Liberal Democrats. However, there are obvious problems about entering into a coalition with the Scottish Nationalists, who don’t believe in the UK.

Maybe a ‘grand coalition’ between the Conservatives and Labour is another option. I personally doubt it very much, but stranger things have happened in politics.