In the third chapter of the Book of Ecclesiastes, the Teacher writes: “To everything there is a season and a time to every purpose under the heaven.” He muses on the world around him and identifies some of the activities which societies engage in; killing and healing, breaking and building, tearing down and mending, war and peace.

When reflecting on the coming year, it is perhaps the need to find a “time to mend” which is most pressing.

At the close of 2014, the world was fraught with conflict and violence. The recent thaw in US-Cuba relations provided just a brief interlude of hope in what was otherwise a year of violence and conflict.

The year 2015 thus begins with widespread divisions and tensions that do not augur well for the future.

In 2014, a number of secessionist causes were quelled, the proposal for an independent Scotland was defeated at the polls, a referendum for an independent Catalonia failed to get the necessary recognition by the Constitutional Court of Spain and both the Basque terrorist group ETA and the National Liberation Front of Corsica announced an end to armed conflict.

Nonetheless, the quest for self-determination and increased devolution in the region remains as strong as ever.

In 2015, hope will be conspicuous by its absence

Spain should go to the polls before the end of the year. The centre-right Partido Popular has set in motion a series of reforms that are meant to put Spain on the road to recovery.

These reforms were successful in part; the Budget deficit decreased and a number of legal reforms ensured that the labour market is more flexible.

Nonetheless, unemployment remains high, particularly among youths and the benefit of these reforms has yet to be felt by the electorate. Trust in the major parties is at an all-time low.

The UK is also scheduled to go to the polls in May. The outcome is quite difficult to predict but it will most likely result in a hung Parliament.

Support for the Liberal Democrats has dwindled to an all-time low; the spectre of Britain’s relationship with the EU has come back to haunt the Conservative Party and the Labour Party has yet to convince the electorate it can deliver in economic terms.

The greatest winners in both Spain and the UK will undoubtedly be the populist parties.

Spain’s left-wing populist group Podemos, led by the professor of political science and talk-show host Pablo Iglesias Turrión, is providing a challenge to the two main parties. Since its foundation in January 2014, the party has seen a surge in its popularity.

Britain’s UKIP is also challenging the political status quo. Their rise is likely to shift the political zeitgeist.

The biggest loss is likely to be that of trust; trust in established national institutions, in elected officials, in political parties and in the EU. Mending this rift may prove to be too challenging.

Divisions in Libya may also prove to be too great to mend. The situation looks grim and will most likely deteriorate in the coming year. The two rival governments, based in Tobrouk and Tripoli, may prove to have little will for compromise.

In addition, intertribal conflict continues to plague the southern regions of the country. MI6 estimates there are a million tons of unsecured weaponry in Libya. This, together with the presence of militias and the lack of will to find a concrete solution, will raise fears of a possible regional spillover.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) will continue to try and advance further. This is likely to bring with it more havoc and instability in the region.

There will also be increased fear of a terrorist attack in a number of major centres of power.

In response, an anti-Islamic backlash can be detected across the globe. Protests and demonstrations with Islamophobic nuances have been held in a number of cities.

The official response to ISIL has been found lacking. The international community is still at a loss on how to deal with the systematic brutality; homegrown terror is on the increase and their propaganda machine is still rather strong.

Moreover, Iraq and Syria are torn apart by internal strife.

The international community emerges from this debacle bruised and weakened, looking hapless and somewhat lacking in credibility.

China’s economic growth will unsettle some in the West. This growth is sustained by a regime that lacks the most basic respect for human rights and a business climate which does little to stifle corruption. Its activities around the globe will be closely monitored.

China will seek to augment its economics strength to gain more leverage and power in international affairs.

Russia will most likely seek to maintain its influence in eastern Europe. Its support of separatist groups in eastern Ukraine and its annexation of the Crimea are likely to affect its standing in the West.

President Vladimir Putin will also have to deal with the economic challenges Russia is facing, namely an inflation rate of 7.3per cent, sluggish economic growth and a looming recession.

Where does Malta fit in this milieu?

The current Administration will enter its third year at the helm. It will face increasing pressure to be accountable and transparent; failure to do so will result in the further weakening of some key institutions.

The role of the Opposition will be to keep up the scrutiny on some dealings, particularly those that involve foreign companies and non-EU governments.

Transparency will be to safeguard Malta’s interests.

In 2015, hope will be conspicuous by its absence. Much of this is a result of a widespread lack of will among international actors. This will turn some attempts to reach lasting solutions into half-baked lacklustre measures.

andre.deb@gmail.com

André DeBattista holds a Masters of Arts in international relations.