The opinion polls were right. The second run of the French presidential election was won by the moderate Emmanuel Macron. The French electorate did not want to take any risks with the far-right Marine Le Pen, who like many maverick politicians, is good at analysing what is wrong with the EU but unable to come up with viable solutions. But a silent revolution is undoubtedly happening in France and it is likely to affect other countries.
Modern election campaigns in the Western world are characterised by politicians’ interactions with the public that are stage-managed to the last detail. Spin doctors who pretend to excel in political communication whisper suggestions in the ears of their bosses on how to appear sanctimonious and convincing on TV. Smiling candidates mingle with ordinary people in markets and on the streets, and utter meaningless slogans to gloss over proven past failures that are part on any party’s baggage.
Macron has little political baggage to hinder him from proposing a fresh image to the French electorate. France today is a much divided country. It is crippled by high unemployment and more than 200 people have been killed in terror attacks since 2015.
The French electorate sent some very significant messages in the two rounds of the presidential elections. It discarded the representatives of the two venerable and traditional political parties: the Socialists and the Republicans. But then it divided its votes almost equally among a newcomer moderate, a far right maverick, and a far left uncompromising hothead.
In the second round Macron was preferred to the fiery Le Pen because he made more sense on how to tackle the failures of the current EU political and economic failures – 10.2 per cent of French workers are unemployed and the figures are even worse for young workers. So, if the former banker Macron wants to really promote a silent revolution, he needs to come up with viable solutions to reduce unemployment.
If Macron fails to deliver and Italy stumbles in more political instability, the EU’s prospects will remain bleak
While it is most unlikely that Macron will declare war on free trade as his rival wanted to do, he needs to convince his EU allies to launch a programme of investment to promote youth employment. He also needs to come up with a solution to the migrants problem that is worrying ordinary people, not just because it puts at risk their physical security, but also because immigration is often blamed for the high unemployment in many EU countries.
With US President Donald Trump wanting to curb globalisation and with Britain wanting to close its doors to immigration, the EU needs to come up with viable solutions before political discontent among ordinary people will lead to mavericks taking centre stage in European politics.
Macron needs to have a comfortable majority in the French parliament if he wants to deliver the goods to those who elected him. At present his party, Le Marche, has no representatives in parliament. Even if Le Marche candidates do well in the June parliamentary elections, Macron may have to rely on the votes of the traditional parties to pass important legislation.
This is where his ability to negotiate with other parties without losing the momentum driving his change programme will become crucial. Both the socialist and the republican parties must be feeling shattered by the way the electorate has disowned them. They need to make themselves relevant again by participating in the silent French revolution that Macron will hopefully continue to promote.
Other large EU countries like Italy, Spain, and Germany will be following closely on how successful Macron is in bringing about change in the way political issues are managed. France is the latest country where the electorate has sent clear signals that it resents the status quo and the political establishment that seems impotent in resolving the issues that worry ordinary people.
Soon it will be the turn of the Italian electorate to pass judgment on the way the EU political elite is performing. The Italians may not want a silent French-style revolution but might opt for a more disruptive solution. The left and moderate right traditional Italian parties are not really at their best at present. Besides being fragmented they often engage in infighting that alienates frustrated moderate voters.
The EU’s political future is still clouded with uncertainty. Following Brexit, many were relieved that the Frexit solution was not endorsed by the French electorate. If Macron fails to deliver and Italy stumbles in more political instability, the EU’s prospects will remain bleak.
johncassarwhite@yahoo.com