As the new President of the United States takes office seeking to eradicate all that Barack Obama stood for, we have been forcefully reminded that Donald Trump’s inauguration has not expunged the new President’s flaws. His xenophobia, sexism, crudeness, petulance, impulsiveness and contempt for decent values are still there.
After the grace, intelligence and eloquence of “no-drama” Obama, what America swallowed hook, line and sinker about Trump, the world must now digest.
It has been a popular misconception – fostered by Trump and the alt-right – that the US under Obama has been a country in decline. But much of that commentary has rested on rather loose analysis, fostering an impression that on Obama’s watch the US lost its way and lacked the will to address the problems it faced.
It is true that the changes that Obama promised eight years ago foundered on the twin rocks of partisan (even racist) legislative rancour and in the blood-soaked sands of the “Arab Spring”. But does the belittling of Obama from mainstream commentators about “a rudderless, stalled administration” hold water?
An objective assessment of Obama’s presidency would notch up more achievements to his name than those of many of his recent predecessors. Despite the scorched-earth strategy adopted by the Republican opposition against their first African-American president, history will judge that, despite the endemic divisiveness that he inherited, Obama made the US a better place and many of his achievements are likely to endure.
Given the ill-judged wars waged by President George W. Bush in Afghanistan and Iraq – with over 150,000 men deployed in the field – the poor economic legacy bequeathed to Obama in 2008, including the $1 trillion fiscal deficit, combined with the growth of the Chinese, Indian and other economies, there has inevitably been a rebalancing of global economic power in the last eight years.
But Obama has succeeded in reviving the US economy after the worst global financial crisis in 80 years. It has improved greatly from the devastation of the financial crisis he inherited. He has restored the car industry and has achieved the longest period of job creation in US history. Last December’s figures show that Americans filed fewer new claims for unemployment benefit than at any point since November 1973. It is an economy nearing full employment. By comparison, Europe’s unemployment is still in double digits.
Obama’s policies undoubtedly contributed to this better performance. There is strong consensus that his stimulus plan helped to mitigate the worst of the slump.
While there was enormous human and economic damage on his watch, the US has managed the financial challenge better than most countries facing comparable crises.
On any measure of the basic indicators, the US’s share of the world’s GDP has held remarkably steady, not only over the last eight years, but over the past 48. American GDP at roughly a quarter of the world’s economic output remains about the same as it was in 1969. It remains not only the largest but also the richest economy in the world.
In social justice terms, when Obama signed into law the Affordable Care Act (‘Obamacare’), he took a giant step forward for millions of Americans who until then had had no access to health insurance. Free health care, a privilege we in Europe take for granted, had until then been denied to many Americans.
Obama’s extreme caution and his aversion to the use of the US’s hard power in support of global order has dismayed allies and emboldened foes
Despite its flaws, Obamacare has meant a huge improvement to the quality of life of tens of millions of Americans. Even those who were already insured have gained both security and freedom because they now have a guarantee of insurance cover if they lose or change their jobs. Trump may repeal and “improve” it, but health reform will be an enduring Obama legacy.
When it comes to military power compared with that of potential adversaries, the US remains unmatched. It is by far the most powerful military nation the world has ever known. Obama’s commitment to a costly nuclear modernisation programme has underlined that there is no decline in America’s relative military capacity. The US armed forces are equipped with the most advanced weaponry and are the most experienced in actual combat.
As to that other measure of national power – the degree of political influence it wields – by and large, Obama managed to get right his policies towards China. The pivot towards Asia was timely. While the “reset” with Russia during his first term delivered some benefits, when Putin annexed Crimea and opted for confrontation with the West in Ukraine, Obama was absolutely right to respond accordingly.
Obama has been reluctant to commit US ground forces and eager to extract them from ongoing military commitments. In Afghanistan, Iraq and, most of all, in Syria, Obama’s extreme caution and his aversion to the use of US’s hard power in support of global order has dismayed allies and emboldened foes.
Obama’s contempt for the interventionist excesses of his predecessor, his suspicion of arguments to “do more” and his ingrained pessimism about the utility of hard power appear to have had the effect of reducing the US’s capacity to do good in a bad world. But while many gung-ho Americans, and Western critics, seem to equate a reluctance to spill US blood as a sign of weakness, history will judge that his reluctance to go to war gratuitously, as his predecessor did, was the brave and welcome option.
With Trump in the White House, Obama’s caution and reluctance to commit US ground forces in a misconceived policy of “making America great again” through the exercise of reckless hard power, will be sorely missed.
The one unambiguous policy success is the nuclear deal with Iran. Patient diplomacy and the building of international support for a crippling sanctions regime, combined with the credible threat of military action if all else failed, resulted in a deal that has effectively stopped Iran from getting a bomb for the next decade or so.
Obama’s mix of cautious pragmatism and cool realism finds an echo in the approach of two of his Republican predecessors as president – Dwight Eisenhower and the first George Bush – whose reputations have grown considerably since their departure from office.
Obama had an unwavering view of what was in America’s long-term interests and refused to be forced by impatient demands for action to intervene in ways that may have been temporarily satisfying but had little prospect of success at acceptable cost.
The overall verdict? Obama has delivered less than his supporters wanted, but more than his detractors acknowledge. His health reform is imperfect, but still a giant step forward. Economic management has been much better than in other advanced countries. National security has been marked by a welcome lack of adventurism.
Although Obama has not lived up to the rhetoric and golden dreams promised in 2008, it matters that, in the face of the most obstructive Republican opposition ever and the worst financial crisis for 80 years, he has achieved so much of lasting value.
Above all, it matters that Obama recognised – in a way which dysfunctional Trump will never do – that because of its enormous power and attachment to universal humanitarian values, the US has a unique responsibility to provide moral leadership in the world that cannot be shirked.