We can expect the battle against the so-called Islamic State, the conflict in Syria and the fight against jihadist terrorism to once again be dominating issues in 2016. IS will continue to be pushed out of Iraq through a combination of Western-led airstrikes and Kurdish and Iraqi government forces. In Syria IS will take longer to be defeated because the Syrian conflict is and will remain more complicated than the situation in Iraq.
The International Monetary Fund has predicted a growth rate of 3.6 per cent for the world economy in 2016, a slight improvement over last year’s performance, and modest economic growth of 1.6 per cent for the eurozone. Of course, global economic growth can be thrown off course by a number of international events including a slump on Chinese markets which happened last week. China is the second largest economy and the second largest importer of both goods and commercial services, so a financial crisis there could well spill over to the global economy.
As IS continues to lose territory in Iraq and Syria the world should be prepared for more terrorist attacks, especially in Europe. The jihadists will want to show that they are still a force to be reckoned with and will without doubt plan spectacular terrorist attacks. We can also expect IS to expand its presence in Libya and Yemen, as long as a political settlement in these countries remains elusive.
The main challenge for the international community in Syria is to stop the war and to acknowledge that no one can win this conflict. The US, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Turkey and Qatar can put an end to this conflict if they want to. Compromises will have to be made: America should put off the question of when President Bashar al-Assad will have to go and the Russians should stop bombing the non-jihadist rebel groups and agree to include them in any political settlement. In Iraq, any gains made against IS will be in vain unless the Shit’ite-led government reconciles with the Sunni minority.
The dangerous rift between Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, however, caused by the execution by the Saudis of senior Shi’ite cleric Sheikh Nimar al-Nimr, could have a negative impact on the entire Middle East and threatens the possibility of a political settlement in Syria and Yemen where the two major powers are fighting a proxy war.The feud could also fuel Sunni-Shi’ite tensions in Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain.
The US and Russia, who have close ties to Riyadh and Teheran respectively, should mediate and get the two sides to talk to each other. What is also at stake is the survival of the nuclear accord between Iran and the international community. If this crisis escalates, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will be under pressure by the country’s hardliners to scrap the accord, which is perhaps what some observers believe the Saudis, who are terrified of a rapprochement between Iran and the West, want to see happening.
In Afghanistan we can expect Nato to review its strategy in the country considering that the Taliban have been making gains. We can also expect increased calls from some quarters for more of an effort to be made at reaching a deal with the Taleban.
The dangerous rift between Iran and Saudi Arabia threatens the possibility of a political settlement in Syria and Yemen
Migration and the fight against terrorism will continue to be a challenge for Europe, and Britain’s attempt to forge a new deal with Brussels will also dominate the EU’s agenda. The Dutch and Slovakian EU presidencies will have to work hard at trying to forge a consensus over these issues and to save the Schengen Treaty. We can expect German Chancellor Angela Merkel to continue playing a leading role in addressing Europe’s challenges, including doing whatever is possible to keep the UK within the EU.
Facing up to the growth of populist right-wing parties in Europe will remain a key test for mainstream political parties and European governments who need to re-engage with voters to understand why they are abandoning the political centre.
A balance will have to be found between addressing people’s concerns over migration and security and remaining faithful to Europe’s core values. We can expect further clashes between the EU and member states Poland and Hungary which are governed by right-wing populist parties. It will be interesting to see whether the Catholic Church in Poland speaks out against the ruling Law and Justice Party, which is very Catholic in its orientation.
In France there is a strong possibility that if the jobless rate remains high, President François Hollande will not stand for re-election in 2017 and will ask his Socialist Party to nominate another candidate. In Spain the liberal Citizens party will have to decide whether it wants to form part of a left-wing government coalition with the Socialists and Podemos. The alternative could be a minority Popular Party government which would probably not last long, meaning that a new election seems likely.
The US presidential race officially kicks off next month with the Iowa caucuses followed some days later by the New Hampshire primary. For once we can expect foreign policy to dominate the election, especially the war in Syria and the fight against IS. I would like to think that Donald Trump will not be the Republican candidate because I can’t believe his party actually imagines he can win the presidency. However, it is a sad fact that the Republicans have shifted considerably to the populist right and so Trump could indeed win the nomination.
Having said that, I would also like to believe that candidate Trump would lose against his Democratic opponent in November’s election. The Democrats’ choice will almost certainly be Hillary Clinton, although I expect Bernie Saunders to put up a good fight.
However, should the Republican candidate be somebody other than Trump – like Marco Rubio or Chris Christie – then Clinton cannot be assured of victory. And it is usual for the US electorate to vote for a different party after one party has occupied the White House for two consecutive terms, even though I feel that on the basis of Barack Obama’s record in office the Democratic candidate should win the election. Whatever the outcome, this will be one of the most crucial elections in US history.
Being an election year in the US we should not expect any American pressure on Israel to change its attitude towards the Palestinians, and so the stalemate in the Middle East peace process will likely persist.
There will be no good news for Brazil – the fifth largest country in the world both by geographical area and population – as the economy is forecast to shrink by 2.81 per cent this year. It is the first time since 1947 that Latin America’s largest economy, and the world’s eighth largest, has been estimated to shrink two years in a row. Furthermore, President Dilma Rousseff faces impeachment in connection with a massive corruption scandal at the State oil company.
We can expect North Korea to continue causing problems for the world, ignoring its international obligations and threatening its southern neighbour and regional stability. Wednesday’s declaration by Pyongyang that it had successfully carried out an underground hydrogen bomb test, which, if independently verified, would be its fourth nuclear test since 2006, is not good news at all. However, it seems that China is growing increasingly impatient with its erratic ally, and we might just see a shift in Beijing’s accommodating stance towards North Korea.
In September Russia votes in parliamentary elections. The pro-Vladimir Putin United Russia will almost certainly emerge as the largest party although it will be interesting to see if any of the Opposition liberal parties – none of which are represented in Parliament – will manage to win any seats this time.