It looks like the world will emerge from recession in 2010 but that the recovery will be fragile. Most industrialised economies will have to tackle high deficits and unemployment rates. Many economists are of the opinion that the continual growth of the Chinese and Indian economies will contribute towards the global recovery.

It should be an eventful year for US President Barack Obama. His healthcare law should take effect soon and it will be interesting to see how this works out in practice. Obama is bound to continue focusing on the country's economic recovery.

He faces his first mid-term congressional elections in November in which the Republicans are likely to make some gains - the crucial issue will be the margin of the Republican victory.

On the global scene, Obama will continue with his charm offensive and his determination to engage with the world. He will continue to be tested by Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programmes, and Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq will remain huge challenges.

There are some doubts whether Obama's August deadline for US combat troops to leave Iraq by August 31 will be adhered to. Obama will be tested this year over his ability to pressure Israel into adopting a more flexible approach to the peace process and also whether he can convince his Nato allies to send more troops to Afghanistan.

Spain takes on the European Union's six-month rotating presidency at a defining moment for the bloc, with its first ever permanent President, Herman Van Rompuy, and a strengthened foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton. Both individuals will see their profile reinforced somewhat, although it remains to be seen just how much leeway EU leaders - and the EU presidency - will give them.

Spain will focus primarily on Europe's economic recovery and job creation, on helping the EU become a genuine global player and on implementing the Lisbon Treaty. It hands over the presidency to Belgium in July.

The most important European election takes place in Britain, probably in May. The likely outcome will be a victory for the Conservatives, with Labour returning to the opposition benches after 13 years in office. The main challenge for then newly-elected Prime Minister David Cameron will be to carry out cuts in expenditure while maintaining a social conscience. He will also have to define a new approach to Britain's role in Europe that takes into consideration the Conservative Party's ever-growing eurosceptic wing.

France's regional elections in March will prove to be a crucial test for President Nicolas Sarkozy whose popularity has eroded somewhat, although the opposition Socialists are still in disarray.

It will be interesting to see how long Silvio Berlusconi can keep his centre-right People of Freedom party united under his leadership and whether German Chancellor Angela Merkel's tax cuts prove effective in reviving the country's economy.

China is likely to continue growing in importance. Economists expect it to overtake Japan as the world's second largest economy in 2010 and it will play a key role in global issues such as trade, climate change and nuclear diplomacy. In May, it will host the World Expo in Shanghai. It is unlikely, however, that we will see any attempt at genuine political reform in China this year.

It is likely that Russian Prime Minister Valdimir Putin will continue to send out signals throughout 2010 that he intends to run for the presidency in 2012. US-Russian relations should also continue along the path of gradual improvement, and most analysts believe the two countries will soon reach a major agreement on nuclear disarmament. This could have a positive influence on the meeting in New York in May of the 189 signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to review this pact.

It is doubtful whether the international community will solve the problem of Iran's nuclear programme, however, and it is likely that Teheran will press ahead with its nuclear ambitions. I do not think Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities - the risks are far too great - and this time next year Iran will be closer to possessing atomic weapons. The anti-government protests in Iran are likely to continue this year and the government's crackdown on dissent will become harsher.

In the Middle East, Fatah and Hamas still have to come to an agreement over a date for the presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories. The likelihood is that no agreement will be arrived at and that Hamas, which still controls Gaza, will boycott any polls. I am not optimistic that progress will be made in the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians, at least not while Benjamin Netanyahu is Prime Minister of Israel.

Terrorism will continue to threaten us this year and we can expect even more airline security measures to be introduced after the scare on Christmas Day. One hopes that some progress will be made on a climate change agreement after the Copenhagen fiasco. Somalia is likely to remain the worst country on earth and Guantanamo will almost certainly not be closed this month.

Other events to look out for are the World Cup in South Africa in June, Brazil's presidential election in October, and Indonesia's remarkable economic progress, which could see it joining the club of emerging superstars, namely Brazil, India, China and Russia.

Sign up to our free newsletters

Get the best updates straight to your inbox:
Please select at least one mailing list.

You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link in the footer of our emails. We use Mailchimp as our marketing platform. By subscribing, you acknowledge that your information will be transferred to Mailchimp for processing.