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Market Analysis

  • Venezuela – can default be avoided?

    The volatility in oil prices which prevailed the headlines over the past months continued to push Venezuela towards distressed levels, which in turn resulted in an increasing default rate. The model which was adopted by the late Hugo Chavez, in...

  • Day trading tips

    Day trading tips

    One of the side effects from the recent volatility in the price of oil has been the increase in day trading. The availability and ease with which trading accounts can be opened is furthermore contributing to its increasing popularity. Day trading...

  • The paranoia of buying bonds below par

    Family and friends came over to our place over the fun filled carnival weekend. The children were enthusiastic, playing and speaking about their costumes whilst the grownups gathered around the dining room table for some tea and biscuits, an ideal...

  • Bayer AG – Hanging on to a winner

    Bayer AG produces and markets healthcare and agricultural products, and polymers. The company manufactures products that include aspirin, antibiotics, anti-infectives, and cardiovascular, oncology, and central nervous system drugs,...

  • Emerging market debt, Brazil in focus

    Emerging market debt, Brazil in focus

    In 2015 Emerging Market High Yield Debt (EMHB) manged to lock a total return of 3.2 per cent as per the BOFA Merrill Lynch High Yield Emerging market index, with the registered return being solely generated from carry return (7.5 per cent), which...

  • 2016; fasten your seat belts

    2016; fasten your seat belts

    Global markets have been on a roller coaster ride since the opening sessions of 2016. The brutal volatility spared no-one. Equities, currencies, commodities, bonds (both investment grade and high yield) all went through massive price movements...

  • Is a mini recovery presenting itself?

    Is a mini recovery presenting itself?

    A bit of positive economic data has presented itself this week, marking an improvement in eurozone data albeit negative unemployment figures and PMI data out of Italy. Germany continues to be the pillar of the eurozone recovery as unemployment...

  • Volatility was the order of the day during January

    The first month of 2016 can be described as a tale of two halves, with EM weakness and disappointing global economic data leading risky assets lower in the first half, with the second half characterised by some form of market friendly tones and...

  • Anheuser-Busch (Budweiser) update

    Anheuser-Busch (Budweiser) update

    Anheuser-Busch sells $47 billion worth of the liquid every year, boasting an absurdly high 24 per cent profit margin and inspiring some of the strongest customer loyalty. In essence Anheuser-Busch is one of those massive companies that can do...

  • US Speculative Credit a prime laggard in 2015, what about 2016?

    Surely 2015 will be marked as one of the worst performances, in terms of total return for the US High yield market over the past years. Undoubtedly, the commodity sector emerged as one of the main drags for the US junk market with notable flagging...

  • A look at Apple Post Q1 results

    On Tuesday evening Apple Inc. reported a strong December Quarter results but guidance was weak for the rest of the year due to a deteriorating macro environment. The main highlights from the results were; * Apple had the strongest financial...

  • The Waiting Game

    It seems markets are encountering one of the biggest waves of volatility since 2011. Investors trading the VIX volatility index are surely the current winners as uncertainty and weak fundamentals continue to spark sell-offs into 2016 in favour of...

  • Dead cat bounce or recovery in sight?

    Was last end of week rally a dead cat bounce? Are we in for more heartache or have we reached a bottom? Will markets range trade now that January’s lacklustre performance in risky assets to date has seen a number of investors bottom fishing, or...

  • Dates to forget and others to remember

    On the 31st December, we opened up a champagne bottle to celebrate a year which was acceptable for equity markets. It could have been much better had we not encountered a series of obstacles throughout the year. However, if you had to compare the...

  • ECB’s Mario Draghi’s tone keeps market mood upbeat

    ECB’s Mario Draghi’s tone keeps market mood upbeat

    This week has been a busy week in terms of macro-economic data. Monday was a muted day with the US closed on holiday, but Tuesday made up for the previous day’s lack of data. Inflationary data surprised to the upside in the UK (although there was...

  • How dividends may affect stock prices

    How dividends may affect stock prices

    Stocks that pay consistent dividends are popular among investors. Though dividends are not guaranteed on common stock, many companies pride themselves on generously rewarding shareholders with consistent – and sometimes increasing – dividends each...

  • Caution: mind your step

    Caution: mind your step

    The performance in global markets year to date has done little to convince us that the US will raise interest rates further, or that oil prices are ready to stabilise any time soon, at least for the first half of the year. The recent sanctions...

  • Markets bruised, but are we in for more?

    Markets bruised, but are we in for more?

    We were aware that, heading into the new year, markets would be faced with headwinds due to the fragile state not only of capital markets in general but also commodities, emerging markets and the pace of the global economic recovery. However, few...

  • Bonds vs funds

    Bonds vs funds

    Quite frankly, a bond is a loan. You are not investing in the company and getting a share, you’re letting a company or government entity borrow your cash. Some bonds really are safe, but others are far riskier, however different types of companies...

  • How sensitive is ECB to recent developments?

    The last few trading days provided no respite to investors who by now are likely becoming more and more accustomed to the increase in volatility and the challenging market conditions. Commodities, emerging markets slowdown, China related worries,...

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