Monday, 8th June 2009
Elections: On solace and soul searching
During the Cold War a car race competition was organised between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Americans won the competition. On their return home the Soviets were asked about their placing. "We came second," they said. "And what about the Americans?" was the follow up question. "They placed just before the last."
This anecdote, I guess, can come in handy while discussing election results. Election results are generally such that everyone can claim some sort of solace. This election, though, had a number of features, which made it different from others. Solace cannot be claimed by everyone and some who claim solace in public would do well not to let this quest delude them also in private.
And the winner is .....
This was an election whose winner was known from day one. The question was about the size of its victory. The Labour Party obtained "maggoranza kbira u komda" in the words of its Deputy Leader Toni Abela shortly after the ballot boxes were opened. The official result - 54.77% - nicely fits in with what Dr Abela said. Besides, the Partit Laburista has 35,000 votes more than the Partit Nazzjonalista; no mean feat indeed. This is a clear and big victory if ever there was one. Probably no other party in any other member states had a better result than the Partit Laburista.
But there is a "but" here as well. This has to be addressed by the Partit Laburista. In the March 2008 election they won 141,888 votes. In last Saturday's election they won a lesser number of votes - 135,917 votes. This shows that thousands of voters who are disillusioned by the PN preferred not to vote than to vote for the PL.
Some soul searching would be in place. As Dr Muscat said on more than one occasion: nothing should be taken for granted.
Far worse than better
The Partit Nazzjonalista found some solace in the result. The Prime Minister said that the result was worse than they had hoped for but better than they had expected. There is truth in what he said. They marginally increased their vote, compared to the EP elections of five years ago and it seems that they will increase the number of their MEPs. A 3 - 3 result - if it happens - would be a good sop for supporters.
It is true that though they were not massacred they suffered serious wounds. Their solace ends there. Compared to the election of March 2008 they netted 43,000 votes less! Nothing to be over enthusiastic about, I think.
They have to do a lot of soul searching, indeed! Easy excuses will not help them. It is true that there is an international recession and that this negatively affected local moods and climates. While all EU member states were affected, it does not transpire that all parties in government lost the election. Germany and Italy are two examples. Nor can they just pin it on difficult decisions that they believe that they had to take in the national interest. All these considerations are part of the story and do provide part of the explanation. However, it would be disastrous if the PN stops there. If they do so they would be saying: "It's everybody's fault but ours." That is the best recipe for disaster. The Government has to see what it - not some body else - did wrong. By doing wrong I do not mean ineffective or non-existing PR. I mean wrong decisions, or right decisions taken in a wrong way or decisions that had to be taken but were not taken - on the macro or micro level.
PN apologists will surely retort saying that they have been in Government for just over a year and as a result no one should expect that a five year programme be worked out during such a short period. True. Nevertheless, the problem is that a perception is growing that not everything that was promised could be executed. This perception, if not tackled, will cause the Nationalists more and more harm.
The best result?
Lowell can also find solace in the result. At 3,637 votes, Imperium Europa increased its first count vote of five years ago by 2,034. No party registered such a percentage increase. The gentleman, quite rightly, is happy about the result. Many others, myself included, find it very worrying. It would be very interesting to note who gets the second preferences of Imperium Europa voters.
Hardly any solace
Alternattiva Demokratika's 5,802 votes show an increase on their general election result of 2008 when they polled just over 3,000. I don't think that they will find any solace in that fact. In the last EP elections they had polled almost 23,000! I guess that they will ask themselves whether they should close shop or keep soldiering on. On the other hand, Azzjoni Nazzjonali with 1,600 votes should not have any problem answering this question.
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Comments
In Germany in one newspaper survey 80% of thier readers thought of the EU as a dictatorship! If you were to make a referendum in Austria today, they would pull out of it!
Funny how politicians always try to refer to thier referendums won, but the Maltese politicians (both PN and PL, would NOT dare to make a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty)! Such is democracy in our country and elsewhere. Only in Ireland they are obliged to have a referendum, and it seems that their no vote of last, to speak on behalf of the other EU states that had no right to vote!
The previously masked Constitution of the EU is now packaged as the Treaty of Lisbon. Same substance in effect, and this to avoid the people from saying yes or no to it.
guess the PN need to reassess the strategy in respect of AD.
What is all the fuss about? Father Borg is entitled to his opinion as much as you and me, the archbishop and the pope.
It is only an opinion, subjectively based on what he sees as facts, like your and my, and the archbishop's and the pope's opinion!
Of course I realize. But it's good just the same :-))
Funny I never heard it before!
I'm sure you ve reailized that it is a pun on the word "ass + u +me" ...I try to avoid
using it as much as possible because of this :))
It is a very old cite. Correction is due in both cases.
To assume; It makes an `Ass` of `u` and `me`. Got it?
Its an old saying (to assume...). I don't know its origin though.
By the way, you might be interested to know that I oppose on principle anyone aspiring for dictatorship, be he leftist or rightist. We've had enough human casualties of severely flawed exremist ideologies that necessarily make individuals just means to a "higher end", to be discarded if the ultimate goal requires it.
Once again, read Lowell's manifesto before commenting. Your naive ignorance of long term effects and one-way focus on short-term goals could place you and your own family in danger. You can say that I am "crying wolf" if you want, but don't say you have not been warned. I read my history and political philosophy, and can see similar beginnings for similar ends. Its time you started reading too.
In a sense, we are lucky our nation is so polarised (PL and PN). Elections in Malta, thankfully enough, are not won on deviously and opportunistically taking advantage of a single issue and playing with people's real or perceived fears. This, at least, gives me hope...for my sake, my family and yours.
Hitler and Mussolini had major victories in their time. Yet, I don't think I need to explain the demerits of both. Some people "cried wolf" in Germany and Italy in the late 30s and early 40s, and yet, few people listened. We all know what happened next.
As for the manifesto, if you take the trouble of actually reading what I wrote, you will notice that the manifesto I referred to is Lowell's manifesto, and not AN's. Have you actually read it? I very much doubt it, since you give the impression you do not even know it exists (hence your confusing it with AN's manifesto which I did not even mention).
So please read carefully before "pontificating nonsense".
You missed most important factor in your miscalculations.You didn't mention the fact that in 2008 the 'turnout' was much higher then last week. Niether did you mention why a good percentage chose not vote, something both parties have to work on.may I be somewhat imprudent and ask why you missed these most important factors?
Another TWO important factors that though incredible as they looks they are now a FACT!
1. Only 1945 ( never again) we had witnessed such a huge majority voting for the LP ( MLP)
2. After 55 years Gozitan electorate gave the PL a mojority in Gozo.
Finally, the crushing defeat that the PN suffered demonstrates without any doubt that GonziPN has indeed a very short life. We all know that not only :"not everything that was promised could be executed: but most are just 'empty promises'.
TRUTH ALWAYS PREVAIL!
@Fr. Joe: “…when one assumes one makes an ass of me and u.”
That’s a clever remark!!! Is it original or are you quoting?
Do you think that your 'phobia' about the Right and Far Right movements merits any comments? Then surely you have not followed the major victories these parties garnered in Italy, Holland, Bulgaria and the UK for starters! Naive people like you keep crying 'wolf' about the Right and ... still they keep gaining ground fast!
I am proud to have voted Norman Lowell - as over 3600 others have (not to mention another 1800 on the AN anti-immigration manifesto which I HAVE READ MUCH MORE THAN YOU.
...That makes a complexive total which surpasses the AD leftist 'has-been' party. AND THAT SAYS A LOT! Make no mistake. The Right is gaining ground all over Europe and if that makes you (or Joe Borg for that matter) worry, then stuff it and get real - and stop pontificating nonsense.
I chose the quotations, that’s my privilege; you chose yours that’s your privilege. I criticized the passages of my choice not otherwise.
Critics do not always share the ideas of the writer and interpret it differently. Critics themselves interpret things differently. This happens very often in Malta, you surely know what it means. Mostly it all depends on the allegiance (declared or apparent) of the writer. The 3-3 is symptomatic. Don’t count the chickens before they are hatched.
Hence we must be careful about what and how to write if we don’t want to be interpreted differently.
Quoting carefully is not a misinterpretation. Nobody is compelled to gulp what is dished out. That would be brainwashing.
I wrote in my free time, what I felt and it was understood; that is enough for me. Time and space are precious.
Is "refusing votes" even an option? I don't think so. It would go against the basic fundamental principle of democracy - that of freely choosing who to vote for.
here you are:
AD 578
PL 1100
PN 813
Non-transferible 1735
As far as I know no PNPLAD candidate refused these 'racist' votes.
Can’t you just be happy with the result and enjoy the euphoria. Why do you want to cut short your jubilation unless you want further reassurance that the result achieved will have a bearing on the next general election? Unfortunately no matter how much we juggle the figures around, in the end no one can tell which way the result will go for many factors will have to contribute, and it is early days yet.
As for me, I thought that Fr. Joe’s article was extremely balanced and well analysed.
It is not only a question of Mr Magri quoting mistaken figures but also of quoting figures selectively.
No where in my blog did I try to hide the size of the victory of the PL. Once more copy and paste:
"Besides, the Partit Laburista has 35,000 votes more than the Partit Nazzjonalista; no mean feat indeed. This is a clear and big victory if ever there was one. Probably no other party in any other member states had a better result than the Partit Laburista."
Mr Magri you are not being honest.
@ Anthony Magri. You wrote that I compared the PL result with that of the general election while I compared the PN vote with that of the EP election of 2004. What you write is simply not true. What I write is very clear.
Here is what Fr. J.Borg wrote clearly in one paragraph (copy and paste).
(quote)In the March 2008 election they(MLP) won 141,888 votes. In last Saturday's election they won a lesser number of votes - 135,917 votes. This shows that thousands of voters who are disillusioned by the PN preferred not to vote than to vote for the PL.
Now let’s reproduce with what election did Fr. Borg compare the P.N. result
(Copy and paste)”They (The P.N.)marginally increased their vote, compared to the EP elections of five years ago and it seems that they will increase the number of their MEPs. A 3 - 3 result”
Is what I wrote simply not true? In fact it is very clear as Father Borg remarked.
Fr. Borg should not have used the expression "Not true" His remarks are an enigma
Regarding percentages, no quarrel. If I am wrong, that’s “mea culp” Figures still face the readers.
What worries me, Mr Attard, is that people like you have become puppets on Lowell's string, to be used as pawns for his crazy dream. Have you ever taken the time to study his manifesto in depth? Lowell is not just about immigration. If you haven't, that makes it much more worrying.
I would suggest you do read Lowell's manifesto and see where (if Lowell had to have his way) that would leave you and your family.
The same applies to all other "Lowell supporters" who seemingly are coming out of the closet.
If we don't learn from history (the 1940s), we are bound to repeat it.
Therefore what you wrote is not true.
Mr Magri you said that the PN got 48% in 2004. This is not true either. The PN got 39.7% in 2004 and not 48%.
You said that this time the PN got under 40%. This is also not true. The PN got just over 40%.
Mr Magri why are you twisting things around? Can it be that you do not understand plain and simple English? Did you make a genuine mistake? Or do you know exactly what I wrote but you want to deceive the readers?
He compares the Labour Party vote this time with the general elections, but he compares the P.N. vote with the result of the MEP vote in 2004. Doing otherwise would defeat Father Borg argument. in 2004 the P.N.got 48% the MLP49+% + 1 point difference
This time the P.N. got less than 40% the LP just little more than 54% +14+ points difference.
Does this difference say something. I would not go to confess to Fr. J. Borg for he uses two weights and two measures according to the penitent. That's wrong, quite unfair. He might give me a harsher penitence than I deserve.
One can't compare quantitative results with those obtained last year - voter turnout was a 2-digit less. Even still, if we had to compare results, then PL saw a decrease of 5.971 votes as compared to PN's haemorrage of -43.000 - worst result since 1955..
In your clinical analysis, you failed to point out the fact that such outstanding result for the PL is even more meaningful (morally?) considering the fact that last year's election was won by a relative majority. Therefore if this had to be a "re-run" of last year's parity result, then Labour is now THE truly legitimate party with an absolute majority backing. (PN last obtained an absolute majority in 2003).
Fr. Borg would it not be better for you if you analyse Church issues rather than political ones, and believe me there is a lot to analyse!!!