Friday, 15th February 2008
The flowering and withering of a coalition
These past few weeks witnessed the flowering of the idea of a coalition government. Alternativa spokesmen have been putting forward this idea for a very long time. A coalition government was billed by these people as the panacea for all the real and imaginary evils that this fair land is facing. During an edition of Bondi+ their representative on the panel ruled out a coalition with the right wing Azzjoni Nazzjonali but not with the Nationalists or Labour Party.
In the past week the tempo reached a kind of climax. If the postings on the blogs, letters and news stories in timesofmalta.com reflect in any way the feeling in the country, then the subject is truly controversial. Michael Falzon (the former Nationalist minister) sent a letter to The Times entitled “Coalition Government Impossible” (08/02/08).
At the time of writing this piece it was the third most commented on story in timesofmalta.com. Many reacted with pro or against comments. Daphne Caruana Galizia, for example, strongly made the argument that a vote for Alternattiva will increase the possibility that the next government will be a Labour one. Claire Bonello, on the other hand, sung the praises of the formation of a coalition government.
By the middle of this week one possible actualisation of this vision/aspiration was shot down by one of the partners. Bondi+ of last Monday was again the protagonist. Lou asked the former Nationalist MP, Clyde Puli whether the Partit Nazzjonalista would form a coalition with Alternattiva. He answered in the negative. Lou jumped on this news item but Clyde Puli reiterated that what he was saying was the party line. This was confirmed by Joe Saliba, the Secretary of the PN through his comments to the mid-week edition of Malta Today and by the Prime Minister in a front page story in The Times of Wednesday, February 13, also reported in timesofmalta.com.
With this possibility gone, Alternattiva is faced only with the possibility of a coalition with the Labour Party. Neither Dr Zrinzo Azzopardi, President of the MLP during Bondi+ (11/02/08) nor Jason Micallef, MLP secretary (Malta Today February 13) ruled out a coalition with the Greens.
But Dr Harry Vassallo, had already expressed his opinions on the PN and the MLP when he wrote in The Times of Friday 14 December 2007: “It seems a certainty at this stage that the Nationalists will return to government. The opposition is nowhere at all ….. Every move it makes to stir up its ranks serves only to confirm its doom. The Labour core may get high on antique bombast but it is not the Labour core which can win Labour an election. … Labour still has nothing to offer those who have decided the fate of this country over the last several decades. So it looks like a Nationalist outright victory no matter how much the PN leadership tries to muster every last vote by spreading rumours that it will be a close call."
This leaves Alternattiva in a kind of a bind. Alternattiva have been shunned by those whom they believe will be the outright winners while the Labour Party whom Alternattiva believe is nowhere at all and has nothing to offer has left the door half open. Not the nicest place to be during the second week of the electoral campaign!
Alternattiva are not deterred. Dr Vassallo thinks that the Nationalists will have to reconsider after the election results are announced. His comments to the Malta Today were somewhat in this direction. The Green party has often said that they will get four seats in Parliament. Jason Micallef noted that a party needed 17% of the vote to get a member elected. (Getting 17% in four districts implies respectable percentages in the others.) Published polls give Alternattiva around 3%. They have just under three weeks to make up for the difference. No mean feat.
Shameful Azzjoni Nazzjonali
The xenophobic policies of Azzjoni Nazzjonali are showing the true colour of this party which on this particular area wallows in charlatanism. The latest deplorable incident is the promotion billboard that Anglu Xuereb set up close to the Balzan parish church.
The billboard promises that Azzjoni will close the open centre for migrants in Hal Balzan. The centre is run with great love and dedication by the religious sisters of the Bon Pastur. The parish community together with the Kummissjoni Emigranti and other NGOs did a lot of hard work to try and integrate the migrants with the rest of the Balzan community. Children of the migrants celebrated first Holy Communion with the Balzan children. Several families are from time to time invited to neighbouring parishes.
But Anglu Xuereb has other plans. The centre must be closed he says. Will Azzjoni try and close the other open centres in Malta? Will they put all migrants in detention centre? Will they put them all on planes on the way to Brussels, as they once foolhardily promised? Can he please enlighten us?
Or perhaps there is no need to do any of this enlightenment Mr Xuereb. You can only enact your evil plan if you succeed in forming a national government (as you promise) and that will not happen before the ice of Antartica melts. So keep on putting up as many posters and billboards as you want spreading you know what about foreign migrants.
Mgr Philip Calleja’s condemnation should be supported by the church’s Justice and Peace Commission as well as other church bodies working in the area.
Di-veing deep into insignificance
I commented quite strongly against Go’s decision to stop covering the electoral campaign on its electronic news web site, i.e. di-ve.com. How can a news site not have news on the electoral campaign? What kind of news site is it?
Go is undoubtedly strong enough financially to provide the resources needed to have a first class news web site. It should have invested to give us this service. Doing this would have done justice to its social commitment to our society. The decision to stop news about the electoral campaign is a disservice to Go, its customers and the country.
Happy Birthday Julian
Julian, my great nephew will be three next Monday (February 18).
He has already sent his first MMS. He did it by pure coincidence while playing around with his mother’s mobile. He is more conscious when sending SMSs. He tells his mother he wants to send an SMS to nanna, pushes the relevant button and clicks away at the letter keys and asks his mother to type the number. He finally hits the send button. Julian surfs on the Internet after his parents type in the website address. He clicks the mouse with ease till he gets what he wants.
At the age of three, like those of his generation, he is familiar with computers, DVDs, TV, Internet, mobiles etc.
I remember that the first TV set we had in our house when I was growing up was when I was 13 years old. The first computer when I was 34 years old. The first mobile when I was around 40.
What a different world our kids are growing in! How richer in potentialities and possibilities. How lucky!
Happy birthday Julian.
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Comments
Thus it seems that the PN is comfortable to gamble with a Labour govt, rather than 'allowing' AD to dent the MLPN duopoly!
Unfortunately for them, the sleeping giant awoke abruptly and crushed them. They are now forced to confront an impressive PN electoral machine, to convince the electorate that a vote for AD will not be a 'de facto' vote for MLP. They are now fighting a war that they didn't know they were going to be fighting.
Analogies aside, it seems to me that there are two kinds of coalitions, honest ones and dishonest ones. Honest ones are those based on pre-electoral agreements to face an election together, or agreements to form coalitions should it be necessary once the count is in. Dishonest ones are those created by force majeure, without prior public announcement, after the results are known. This means that a voter can vote for a party, have it elected, but find its policies modified to suit the whims of a coalition partner he/she did not vote for and whose policies he/she did not agree with.
An example of an honest coalition is the Sinistra Arcobaleno in Italy. This is a coalition announced BEFORE the election and includes the Italian greens and the two more extreme left wing remnants of the former Italian communist party. Interestingly, if my memory serves me correctly, Arnold Cassola, seasoned Alternattiva veteran, was elected to the Italian parliament as a member of the Italian green party. So, with that in mind, it would seem to me that a more suitable and consistent alliance (and also an honest coalition) would be a pre-electoral alliance between AD and the MLP, rather than AD bringing in the MLP through the back door.
Finally, a word about coalitions in general. Much has been said about their stability or otherwise. It seems to me that there are two main variants, being the German model and the Italian one. No prizes for guessing which one we'd be most likely to get!
These two gentleman showed that I am wrong. In fact a parir mhux mitlub kollu mitluf. It could be that I did not explain myself well. So while I am already half down the way to an intellectual burial let me have another shot at it. I am not interested in whether AD will score a lot, a little or no goals at all in the coming elections. I just said - and every 1 euro cent recycled book of marketing will bear me out - that if AD believe that they will elect four members of Parliament they should say so in every occasion. It does not make sense to say that one time and then always write about siturations where AD will elect one or at best 2 MPs. Doing so people like Edward Fenech are shooting AD in the foot. Mine was a technical and not a political argument. I also suggested that while AD should stand by their position of electing 4 MPs then they should substantiate this position in some way or other. Once more this is a technical stance and not a political one. I once more refer to the 1 euro cent recycled book on marketing.
AD are giving confusing messages. A short while ago Dr Vassallo said that i was going to vote AD now he says that I regularly dress up for the funeral of AD. A short while ago Dr Vassallo had a representative on the local council of Swieqi. Now he has an ex-counciller who thinks AD is power hungry, These development that do not augur well. Another reason why AD should stick to its guns in a consistent manner.
But again, further proof if any was needed that since PN is the main loser of AD votes, that is a situation which PN should have addressed before.
Nonetheless, it explains quite succinctly why it is PN backers who are the most vociferous and whose chest-beating is becoming humourous if a tad tedious and non-credible.
31 + 32 + 2 = Coalition
There is no more interpretation to give. All those claiming that AD is too small to make it (Like Joe Borg and DCG) should not worry. If they are worried then they recognise the possibility.
QED
Why is this so hard to understand? Clyde Puli said "No", then Dr. Gonzi said it's not an issue.
Now do any of you believe that Dr. Gonzi will refuse to have a coalition with the Greens, and choose Labour instead?
Let's keep it simple,
1. AD wish to take votes from whoever they can, be it PN, MLP, non-voters, extra-terrestrials cyborgs...any vote is useful at this stage. I think that's axiomatic, so let's move on.
2. Why can't some people just admit that for a social democrat/liberal democrat the MLP is no longer palatable. And apart from the lip-service that they give to "social issues" neither are the PN. Of course the latter is debatable and to forestall the inevitable come-back argument that the PN is more socially minded than the MLP let's just say that both parties target these areas for vote-catching.
So...AD is, at present, THE party of the centre-left, and a Green one to boot...are we assuming that people of that political inclination exist everywhere in the world except Malta? So why shouldn't AD develop its own root support?
3. AD are the only party that has pronounced itself unequivocally on two very important (for me) issues. Everyone knows what they are....and for MLP and PN these are taboo as they lose too many votes. If you need me to tell what they are, you might be reading the wrong blog/newspaper.
4. I know at least two votes that will be lost to the MLP and going to AD. No, not PN to AD....but MLP to AD. Now that doesn't sound so bad does it? Is that warm and fuzzy enough for the scare-mongerers of this little polarised and highly inquisitioned Island?
5. Forget coalition....how about a sole AD government.. a beautiful, albeit impossible target. Now that would be change!!
i will offer a technical opinion on some marketing aspects of this idea.
AD are branding themselves as a credible candidate for a coalition since they say that they will elect four MPs. But they are not projecting this in a consistent manner. Their spokespersons writing in newspapers are repeatedly giving the scenario that the result could be 32 + 32 + 1.
Why do they give this scenario when their brand is 4 + 31 + 30. They should consistently project this and not the 32 + 32 + 1 scenario which they do not believe in.
Quite naturally then they must put forward some indication about their workings. Since all published polls put them light years away from their aspiration they should publish the polls or research they have and which gives credence to their claim that they will elect four MPs.
If AD follow this path and stop giving contrasting signals they have a better chance of convincing voters. Otherwise there is the possibility that people will not take their message seriously.
I know that parir mhux mitlub nofsu mitluf but I tried just the same.
I find it hard to see why supporting the political party which reflects your ideals and aspirations is a manifestation of immature behaviour. It is only in this way that this party will gain greater recognition. It certainly beats voting for a party you DON't support after that party has amended the electoral laws to its benefit. As for the level of support needed to have AD elect a member of parliament elected - it would be approximately 2500 votes in one district. If this was not possible I can't see why all the PN pundits are attacking AD so frantically
Well, I submit that we can do precious little about it at this election, but quite a lot after it.
Even if you want to make electoral reform the prime determinant of your vote, at the end of the day you only have 6 options come election day. Not a single one of those options moves forward the cause of electoral reform in a meaningful way.
Voting for MLP or PN will help choose the government of the day; it will not be interpreted as a vote for electoral reform, and whoever wins will do their thing anyway.
Not voting or defacing the vote on a massive scale would certainly be noticed - but its a blunt instrument, that would indicate disaffection but say nothing of its source. It would become a quickly forgotten historical quirk for election junkies to dissect on TV programmes no-one wants to watch.
Voting for AN is not really an option right? Certainly not for anyone sophisticated enough to want electoral reform.
What about a vote for AD? On a scale big enough to win a seat they could use their small minority vote to hold the country to ransom. This is the worst way to achieve their aims, and I think its simply wrong to do it this way, given that there are better alternatives. But this is a hugely unlikely scenario. It means forgetting the lessons learnt from the last few elections, forgetting the opinion polls: AD would need to get a massive percentage in a single district. They are not going to get their MP, but if enough people tried the result would be the election of the Labour Party; from the point of view of electoral reform hardly a good result, since its unlikely that a party that has been looking for power for so many years should immediately seek to find ways to share it.
So the harsh reality is that electoral reform, while worth pursuing, cannot be pursued in this election. Faced with that reality you can do one of two things. You can rage against the machine and use your vote to make a protest that will be misunderstood and/or counterproductive. Or you can vote for whoever you think will make the best government generally, and find another way to pursue electoral reform.
How? By creating a national movement for reform after the elections, when people can afford to join you without worrying about what it means for their life, their lifestyle or their kids. Get one or more national papers to support your campaign; get opinion leaders to join you. In other words do it properly, by winning support for an idea that is good, not by hijacking an election.
And I would avoid tying this campaign too closely to a particular party like AD - it begins to come across as self-serving rather than just the right thing to do.
Will it be easy? Hell no. But it's the right way to do it - convince the country you've got a point and make a wave the politicians will have to learn to ride.
If you do start that campaign you can sign me up. But you can't have my vote in this general election. There's no way for me to give it to you, even if I wanted to forget all the other issues.
I believe a vote for AD signifies the electorate’s aspiration to factually embrace these three core pillars of any true democracy.
Some overdue decisions have been delayed or sabotaged by the MLPN simply because of concerns over effectively alienating that crucial % of non party-core voters. It is time for all and sundry to start doing some effective decisions in the general long-term interest….and not only their party’s stalwarts / donors!
Reform the parties and reform the system returning it to one of legitimacy, accountability and good governance for the good of our children. The current mechanism of yes-men-ocracy will not get us very far.
The short term aim of electing the safest government will not be an antidote to many problems for very long. What discussion are we willing to start about the real change that is needed? Who will be discussing the viability of coalitions, proportional representation and the re-enfranchisement of the people?
Definitely not a PN, MLP or for what it may matter a coalition government comfortable with a system that has once again served its ends and is comfortably ensconced for another five year term of ignoring the will of the people.
The future is not theirs to take but ours to make. It's up to us all at the end of the day.
P.S. A bit of humour takes out the edge!!!
This electoral campaign is characterised by the uncertain. The only message which is loud and clear in this campaign, is the need of change. See timesofmalta.com’s poll. 43% say that the most important issue to sway voters is the need for change. Whoever wins the election, Alternattiva Demokratika can be in a coalition government to take care that the ruling government doesn’t act without any check.
Ian Meli
Santa Venera