They say that a week is a long time in politics, and this adage will be proven over and over again in Maltese politics over the next weeks, before and after the election. Calling an election is still a throw of the dice, even though it has been predicated on the calculus that the element of surprise coupled with the shortness of the campaign is unlikely to give the PN a chance to gain momentum against the PL’s lead in the polls.

For although Joseph Muscat has the initiative and the advantage of incumbency, this election has more in common with a referendum than a general election – and therein lies the snag. There are no proper electoral manifestos (only hastily-compiled manifestos of sorts not yet published three weeks before the finish line), no time for a proper campaign with leisurely debates and extensive community outreach, and no chance to examine the parties’ expositional vision for the next five years.

In lieu of unified vision we are getting bombarded with wild messages off the cuff, by the incumbent: resurfacing all roads, tax cuts for all, reinstating days off during the week for public holidays that fall on weekends (and by Simon Busuttil: handout of €10,000 for everyone who starts a family in Gozo, renationalising the Gozo hospital), a dizzying litany of unrealistic promises. And the parties’ motif and slogan is also pared down in simplified poignancy.

In what feels like a referendum on Muscat’s premiership, the PN wants to save Malta from Muscat, while the PL seeks to maintain the momentum built over the past four years – the simplification of the message leaves no room for nuanced exploration. Muscat, with an eye on favourable trust ratings, wants to make it a contest with his opponent; Busuttil is spinning the message into wider resonance by making it a choice between Muscat and the future of the country (this wider message gives the PN’s call a tad more depth, and more strategic wiggle room in the contest).

Referenda can throw surprises – and they usually brood surprises whenever the poll statistics contain as many variables as the present polls on voting intentions. For, although the PL is comfortably ahead, the significant numbers of undecided as well as the voters who have been refusing to disclose their voting intentions make this race open. It’s the undecideds and the non-disclosures that will determine the final result. In referenda (recent examples: the hunting referendum, the Brexit referendum) the percentages of leanings at the outset are liable to disturbances as the race hurtles to the finishing line.

The problem with closely fought referenda is that, rather than settling contentious issues, they mostly serve to intensify controversies

If referenda brood surprises, the contestants give us hints to what may cause disturbances. Muscat is not in the top form that he was four years ago, when his demeanour was unifying in the manner of a patriarch and he exuded the confidence of a prime-minister-in-waiting. In his deliveries this time round there is a hint of proprietorial impatience or trepidation, and an underlying injuriousness or concealment that can make his answers slightly hollow.

Busuttil comes across as more composed and more coherent, more nimbly playing the message (although that’s easier when you don’t have to defend a varied track record besieged by serious accusations of corruption). Yet Busuttil doesn’t project the image of prime-minister-in-waiting – the race is too tight for complacence – but his sure-footedness inspires confidence.

There are also other variables. There is much talk of ‘genuine Labourites’ (read: left-wingers) being disgruntled by this government’s cosiness with the elites (as well as disdain for the likes of Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi – Muscat is already showing aloofness towards them as a result), and this raises the question of mobilisation – which party will manage to mobilise the greatest proportion of its core supporters?

Moreover, having a poll lead may work against the PL, as some people lean towards the so-called underdog, either out of sympathy or for tactical reasons (to ensure a narrow majority for the PL and cut Muscat down to size).

Let’s not forget that Muscat went for the early election to put a lid on the accusations (compelling in many ways) that were rocking his premiership. He sought the cover of an election campaign to turn the accusations into a political struggle, gambling that a PL win would give him enough wind to  (re)shuffle the crew and ride out the storm.

I believe this is at least in part a miscalculation because even if Labour wins it’s likely to be a much-constricted majority. And slim majorities in highly-charged contests only serve to energise the losing side – and intensify the political struggle.

The problem with closely fought referenda is that, rather than settling contentious issues, they mostly serve to intensify controversies. And this referendum is inauspicious in that sense.

There are brooding skies on the horizon for Muscat’s premiership, assuming a Labour victory. If it is by a narrow majority, Muscat will have to muster prescient political wizardry to prevail in the country and within his party (an emasculated majority may even encourage enemies from within the PL to undermine his premiership in the hope of substituting him with a more amenable Labour figure).

Another unpropitious development of the intensity of the struggle is the political-tribal divisiveness, which is rearing its head again. It’s indeed a rocky time for the country – tribal politics is back with a vengeance. Muscat had promised to end tribalism and divisiveness in the country but he comes out this end of his term with greater tribal divisiveness than at the beginning of his tenure. And the divisiveness is likely to lead to voter entrenchment in the weeks to come. (Because of the entrenchment, and because of the unpreparedness and tepidness of the leadership, AD is likely to bleed votes in every direction – I would be surprised if they surpass 2,000 votes this time round – making their ensuing survival as an indigenous political force in doubt. Chances are that AD will be superseded by PD.)

Hopefully, the divisiveness will be short-lived, like the election itself, before it has a chance to develop into something more ominous.

Beyond this referendum – let’s do away with the pretence of calling it a general election by now – perhaps one thing can be predicted with considerable confidence: the protracted political struggle will rage or linger for months to come.