Today’s first-round election in France sees 11 candidates competing in the presidential race. There are four front-runners, two of whom are on the fringes of the political spectrum – which shows just how polarised French public opinion has become. A second round of voting will be held on May 7 between the two top candidates because no one will get an overall majority of votes in today’s poll.

The leading candidates are centrist Emmanuel Macron, leader of the far-right National Front Marine Le Pen, centre-right Republican François Fillon and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

For the first time in modern French history, the incumbent – Socialist President François Hollande – is not standing for re-election because he is incredibly unpopular. Equally shocking is the fact that the Socialist Party’s candidate, Benoît Hamon, is lagging behind in the polls and has no chance of making it to the second round.

The opinion polls show that there are only a few points between the four leading candidates, which means that anything is possible considering the number of undecided voters and those who will not vote. The absolutely worst nightmare scenario would be a run-off election between Le Pen and Mélenchon, who are on the far-right and far-left respectively. This would be a disaster not only for France, but also for Europe.

Both these candidates are in favour of economic protectionism and an unsustainable level of public spending. Le Pen favours France’s withdrawal from Nato’s military wing and the eurozone and has said she would leave the EU if she does not get changes to the bloc’s treaties. She has also adopted a strong anti-immigrant platform.

The ideal result would be a second-round election between the liberal Macron and the conservative Fillon

Mélenchon is in favour of a complete withdrawal from Nato, has also said he will take France out of the EU if the Union does not change radically, and will impose super-high taxes.

The ideal result would be a se­cond-round election between the liberal Macron and the conservative Fillon – who was once the leading candidate but who then lost ground as a result of corruption allegations. Both candidates are pro-European, pro-Nato and strong­ly advocate a programme of economic reform, which France greatly needs. Fillion is more right-wing than Macron on social and economic issues, but both are generally pro-business, combined with a strong belief in French social soli­darity. Both candidates would make an excellent President.

The most likely scenario, however, if the polls are accurate, will be a run-off between Macron and Le Pen. In such a contest it is hoped that all those who believe in French and European values will rally behind Macron – who formed his own centrist movement (En Marche! Onwards!)  after resigning as a Socialist mi­nister a year ago – and allow a new chapter to be opened in French and European history.

There is little doubt that successive French governments, of both the centre-right and the centre-left,  failed to address many of the problems encountered by French citizens, and this explains why the Socialists and Republicans have lost so many of their traditional supporters. Unemployment remains very high, many minorities are not well integrated into society and there are legitimate concerns over immigration and terrorism.

In France, both the far-right and the Communists have well-established roots, and this explains why the two candidates of the extreme parties are among the front-runners – many voters who feel ignored are turning to them.

Macron, however, has made it clear that his movement is neither on the right or the left, and he is perfectly positioned to attract support from voters who are disillusioned with the established parties.

This election does offer the country a chance to reform its economy and to offer, together with Germany, strong leadership in Europe. Both Macron and Fillon have the potential to succeed, while I believe the other two leading candidates, Le Pen and Mélenchon, will tear the country apart and bring the economy to its knees if either of them are elected.

This is certainly a crucial election for France and Europe, and I sincerely hope the French make the right choice.

A reformed France can act as a catalyst for Europe’s revival; an inward-looking France will be a massive setback for the bloc.

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