A Libyan military solution to the civil war is fast becoming the only option but a Mandela-type Truth and Reconciliation Commission following straight after a military victory is also a top priority.
The West retained its out-of-touch policies when in Luca, Italy the G7 “warned and commanded” that the fractious warring Libyan parties “must” work with the dying UN-appointed and recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), situated only in a small naval base in Tripoli and its so-called Presidency Council (PC). It further ordered Libyans to work together to fix the economic crisis by recognising that the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) needs to only collaborate with the GNA/PC – so out of touch with the real issues on the ground in Libya are the G7 countries. Their language is almost expressed in colonial terms.
Other global interference in Libya continues. Most recently also the GNA and Presidency Council leader Fayez Serraj was in Germany to see the head of the Unites States Africa Command (AFRICOM) General Thomas Waldhauser.
A waste of time, as UN and EU efforts have proven these past years. Serraj is unelected by Libyans and chosen by foreigners. That’s never going to achieve progress for Libya’s future.
The one-year anniversary of the General National Accord (GNA) created by the UN and headed by Serraj was on March 30. But the GNA doesn’t function. To compound the GNA’s inability to govern, an acute emergency has emerged in recent days revolving around further direct sales by Cyrenaica (east Libya) of oil bypassing Tripoli and the West.
If this issue remains unresolved the country may split into two or three parts. There is now tremendous infighting between the National Oil Company (NOC) and a variety of diverse interests. The West’s reactions to these realities remain puzzling and totally unrealistic.
These developments are part of a new dynamic that is entering the Libyan civil war. There is also the re-entry of two of Gaddafi’s children who are seeking a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, similar to South Africa’s, in order to bring unity to the country. Specific Libyan tribes are starting to back the Gaddafi clan and a new and hopefully peaceful attempt at country unification may appear that ousts the GNA and other Tripoli militias and extremists for good from the political scene. This is becoming a realistic proposition.
It is to this point that national reconciliation must be addressed. South Africa’s process helped to unify the country after decades of apartheid.
Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar is close to the Elders of Warfalla tribe that give him their support in the war against terrorism. The Warfalla tribe is the biggest in Libya located in the Bani Walid and Sirte area. The Warshfana tribe is second and located in the south west of Tripoli. Both tribes are from the west of Libya and both are against extremists and sympathetic to the Gaddafis.
Importantly, the tribes believe that the Gaddafis can reach an accommodation with Libyan parties to forgive crimes committed before and after the revolt of 2011. Already, evidence can be seen of this trend. Libyan authorities have recently released some Gaddafi-era nobles from prison. The involvement of the former AQ-LIFG fighters to take credit for these releases is a vain attempt to try to align themselves with Gaddifites, which will never succeed.
While the limelight is on Saif, who still is believed to suffer from physical and mental injuries sustained during his capture, his sister Aisha Gaddafi is fast becoming the most important member of the family. She is generating a good deal of attention and she may well be very influential in future.
Aisha is a pragmatic and sensible Libyan with acute political acumen and a sharp wit and intellect. She has a dynamic personality and is the most well educated of the colonel’s siblings. There is an argument that she needs to return to the political scene. Whether she wants to no one knows due to her low profile so far.
However with Aisha’s victory in the European Court of Justice against the UN Security Council-sponsored sanctions this may very well be the first indicator. She has also had her travel ban lifted. A major achievement. Together with her brother, when he achieves 100 per cent fitness, both Gaddafis can begin to work together with all Libyans to rescue the country from its dreadful plight.
This tandem approach – Gaddafi siblings and the tribes – is the possible solution to Libya’s civil war. Haftar recognises the values of tribes and the field marshall is now using all his might to solidify and unify all Libyans while continuing to fight terrorists.
The South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was set up to help deal with what awful things happened under apartheid, much worse than Gaddafi’s crimes ever were. The remnants of conflict during this post-apartheid period resulted in still some limited violence and human rights abuses from all sides but no section of society escaped exposure or punishment.
Libya is suffering under a system of outside international interference in a Libyan decision about their own future. Self-reflection is an important part of reconciliation and it is thought the Gaddafis’ assistance will help in the “cleansing” to build a new Libyan future.
Of course, Libya is not South Africa, and the issues are completely different, yet it is the process of reconciliation and forgiveness itself which has its primordial roots in today’s modern Libyan tribes.
Russian involvement with Egypt is essential. Also African countries must unite to help Libya through this process, not the US Africom, Nato, the UN or even the EU. The only other country that appears to be a true friend to Libya is the UAE who also have the advantage of being anti-Muslim Brotherhood, a dangerous sect that has influence in the west of Libya. Let us hope finally for a conclusion to the tragedy that has been Libya for these past six years.
Richard Galustian is a British political and security advisor based in MENA countries for nearly 40 years.