Many breathed a sigh of relief when François Fillon won the primary election of the Gaullist Les Républicains. He successfully defeated former French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and former prime minister and Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppé.

The polls reacted positively to this news. Fillon was the favourite to win the race to the Palais de l’Élysée. He is an experienced candidate who served a five-year stint as prime minister. His political manifesto touches upon the most important issues which plague France: a bloated public sector, the fear of Islamic terrorism and a sluggish economy in dire need of difficult Thatcherite reforms.

His foreign policy is grounded in pragmatic realism. He supports engagement with Russia, particularly over Syria, and calls for a renegotiation of the Schengen Treaty and stronger policing at the European Union’s external borders.

Fillon is different from other Gaullist candidates in his approach to politics. He is an Anglophile, a social conservative and a practising Catholic who makes no secret of his religious inclinations. The latter is a refreshing development in a country where the principle of laïcité often leads to rigidity and inflexibility.

However, the initial infatuation with this candidate came to an abrupt end. In January 2017, Fillon faced charges of misappropriation of public funds. His wife, Penelope Fillon, allegedly received €500,000 over a period of eight years in the form of a salary for the post of parliamentary assistant for work she may not have carried out. Fillon’s candidature is now in jeopardy.

He is under formal investigation and, perhaps, such developments have made it impossible for him ever to be elected to the highest office of the French Republic.

Fillon’s main challenger was the much-despised leader of the Front National, Marine Le Pen. For several years, the National Front was the refuge of those on the extreme fringes of right-wing politics. Le Pen’s estranged father and the founder of the Front National, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was dogged by accusations of anti-Semitism and xenophobia.

The June legislative elections will be far more important for the future of France

Conscious of this image, his daughter embarked on an ambitious programme of dédiabolisation – or de-demonisation – with the aim of bringing the Front National in the political mainstream. Her strategy is working. The National Front now manages to attract both the disgruntled voters of the right and the left.

Le Pen has successfully formed a coalition of disenfranchised voters around an electoral manifesto based on a ‘law and order’ platform that promotes strong borders, economic protectionism, the re-introduction of the French franc and an anti-austerity economic policy.

She tapped into a sentiment – that politics is no longer about ‘left’ and ‘right’ but about ‘internationalism’ versus ‘nationalism’ – which has long been felt in European politics but which has rarely found a champion in mainstream politics. Her voters now include long-standing Front National supporters, disenfranchised centrist voters, disgruntled former Communist voters and Eurosceptics.

In the first round of the French presidential elections, scheduled for April 23, Le Pen is poised to obtain the largest share of the votes. She will then face an uphill struggle in the second round of elections that are expected to be held on May 7.

The favourite to become the next President of the French Republic is Emmanuel Macron, a former high-ranking civil servant and minister for the economy between 2014 and 2016. He will be running under the ticket of En Marche – a Blair-inspired centrist movement he founded in 2016.

Macron’s pledged to herald a new “democratic revolution”. He is also tapping into the disgruntlement with traditional left-right groupings by claiming that he belongs on neither side of the ideological divide and favours instead a “collective solidarity”.

A closer look at his political position reveals a candidate whose views are firmly entrenched in classical liberalism. He favours European federalism, the free-market and an open-door policy regarding illegal migration.

For the first time in this history of the French Fifth Republic, the two favourite contenders do not hail from the traditional French political formations – the Gaullists and the Socialists. It is highly likely that Macron will be elected as the next President of France.

This will be welcomed as a victory for Europhile forces and a refreshing change from the successful populist movements, which triumphed in 2016. However, Macron’s success may be a pyrrhic victory.

The Constitution of the Fifth Republic grants the President additional powers to act on his initiative. They include the appointment of the Prime Minister, the dissolution of the National Assembly and the appointment of three judges on the Constitutional Council. The President also gives direction to foreign and defence policy. However, the allocation of funds is under the direct control of the National Assembly and the policies are often influenced by the Prime Minister.

In effect, the President’s ability to govern is somewhat hindered; that function is the prerogative of the Prime Minister. In periods of political cohabitation – when the President hailed from one political faction and the Prime Minister hailed from a different grouping – the role of the President was somewhat constrained.

In the likely event of a Macron victory, his first test will come in June 2017 when elections for the National Assembly will take place. Macron is ruling out pre-electoral alliances with any political party. However, his En Marche movement is not much of a political party. It lacks the necessary structures to win a parliamentary majority – and a much-needed majority if he is to be an effective President.

For the legislative elections in June, Macron vowed to field candidates in every constituency under the En Marche banner. He is attempting to reach out to people who are not engaged in politics and other individuals who are disgruntled with their political parties.

Nonetheless, the increasing fragmentation may necessitate a flimsy cross-party alliance that will undoubtedly hamper the President’s ability to set the domestic agenda. Although it is natural for pundits to focus on the upcoming presidential elections, the June legislative elections will be far more important for the future of France.

André DeBattista is an independent researcher in politics and international relations.

andre.deb@gmail.com