In the past weeks I have often commented on the international political uncertainty that is having a negative impact on the economy, thereby generating economic uncertainty.

However, the issue of uncertainty is also important at the micro level that is at the level of the individual business. Many businesses say that uncertainty has become a way of life and that it helps to distinguish the wheat from the chaff.

In many respects this point is perhaps very accurate. Businesses are used to the precision of financial reporting, to exacting quality standards of getting it right the first time and all the times that follow, to numerical values that seek to measure the performance of an enterprise.

So, dealing with uncertainty as a way of life in such an environment is not easy. Businesses have to seek a balance between pursuing opportunities and managing risk, while responding effectively to their customers’, shareholders’, employees’ and other stakeholders’ (especially regulators) expectations.

There was a time when the issues that managers faced in leading their businesses were fairly repetitive. One could say there was a pattern in such problems and the experience gained in addressing past issues, served well when it came to addressing currents ones.

Unfortunately, this is not the case any more. The situations which businesses face today are very often novel and there is no guarantee that they will be the same issues that they will face tomorrow.

It has become impossible for businesses to predict every external variable and control every internal variable that could possibly develop into a strength, weakness, opportunity or threat. Thus, decision-making has become a very difficult task.

Mastering uncertainty would be described by linguists as an oxymoron (defined as ‘a figure of speech in which apparently contradictory terms appear in conjunction’).

Once one masters uncertainty, the uncertainty would disappear. So, possibly, we need to speak more of a need by persons in management to feel comfortable with and to harness uncertainty.

Harnessing uncertainty should not be seen as equivalent to managing risk. Very often when managing risk, one can assess the probability of an event occurring and what impact it may have. When assessing uncertainty, we are very often speaking of “unknown unknowns”, a phrase once used by a defence secretary of the US.

Moreover, these so-called unknown unknowns interact with each other in such a way that identifying the possibility of them occurring and the impact they may have, proves to be an impossibility.

This is not a situation, which a manager would like to find oneself in, given that one is used to objectives such as achieving budgets; delivering output on time, at the expected standard and at the cost anticipated; consistently respecting the parameters that one has been given and working within an established regulatory framework. All these elements seek to provide certainty, while uncertainty becomes a way of life.

I am asked if there exists some secret formula that enables one to harness uncertainty. My answer is in the negative but there are certain actions that we can take to help achieve this. Such actions require a particular mindset and cannot be implemented as if they were some chemical experiment, with each stage well laid out.

This mindset is one that is open to the  external environment, which influences its various component elements, as well as the internal environment of the business.

It means learning from our environment, acknowledging the need for change and departing from routines. It is as simple as that.

However, to what extent are people willing to learn from their external environment to acknowledge the need for change and to depart from established routines? The actions we are required to take are four.

Primarily, we need to pay deep attention to developments. We all read the news and seek to keep ourselves updated with what is going on. We all get excited about new ideas. Unfortunately, it tends to stop there. Our interest in developments has to be more than skin-deep. We need to understand their causes and their impact on us.

Secondly, we need to be in a constant state of learning. Learning is not something we take a liking to very easily as it requires an effort on our part, an effort that we would rather spend elsewhere. We need to create a learning culture in our organisations, where the learning process itself helps to transform the business.

Thirdly, we need to engage in creative conversations with our staff. If we accept the fact that we cannot have the right answer to everything, we need to challenge our staff to use their brains.

Our problem very often is that we want them to use their brains only in specific circumstances. In other circumstances we consider such thinking dangerous. However, if we truly wish to maximise our major asset, that is our human resources, then we need our staff to be both thinkers and doers.

Finally, we need to be on the lookout for new opportunities. One can never be certain whether an opportunity could be a long-lasting one or a fleeting one. Seizing a business opportunity implies getting there before everyone else, not at the same time or after.

Uncertainty tends to create problems for everyone because of the fear it generates. However, it is becoming increasingly essential to feel comfortable with this uncertainty in order to be able to thrive in today’s buisness environment.

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