Donald Trump has been President of the US for just over three weeks and the world is still trying to get to grips with this rather bizarre presidency. As the leader of the free world (at least until now) America matters greatly to the international community and whatever its President does or says is meticulously followed by people around the globe.
Throughout the post-war period the US has provided moral leadership all over the world, making a number of serious mistakes along the way, but nevertheless it has played a crucial role in maintaining international peace, security and stability. Its leadership within Nato, as well as its strong partnership with Europe has been crucial in this regard, and contributed greatly to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Is this leadership now under threat? President Trump said nothing in his inauguration speech about democracy, values and America leading the free world. He simply focused on an ‘America First’ strategy that would guide all his policies, which came across as being an abdication of America’s traditional belief in global engagement, multilateralism and encouraging human rights and democracy around the globe.
Furthermore, Mr Trump’s excessive criticism of the American media, his attacks on the judiciary, his attempt to ban the entry to the US of people from seven Muslim countries, and his blatant habit of lying are not characteristics one would expect from the leader of the world’s greatest democracy.
Of particular concern is the fact that President Trump appointed Steve Bannon, formerly the head of the right-wing (some would say far-right) Breitbart News website, as his chief strategist. Mr Bannon is said to be very close to the President, who even gave him a seat on the National Security Council, where he certainly does not belong.
The EU as a bloc is the only way Europe can deal with the many challenges it is now facing
Of course, the Trump foreign policy doctrine is still taking shape, but the way the new administration has acted so far is not particularly encouraging. Mr Trump has quarrelled with the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Australia, two close and important allies of the US; he has said nothing positive about the European Union and its importance as a key US partner, made only a brief reference to America’s commitment to Nato during a speech at a military base in Florida, and risked anti-American feeling in the Muslim world by his seven-country travel ban (which has been suspended by the courts). He has also remained virtually silent on Syria.
Of particular concern is the Trump administration’s apparent lack of interest in the conflict in Ukraine, its excessively pro-Israeli stance and its obsession with Iran. Worryingly, the renewed conflict in eastern Ukraine came about shortly after Mr Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And Washington’s response to this escalation was somewhat muted.
Mr Trump’s softer policy towards Israel has already led to the country passing a controversial law retroactively legalising 3,800 settler homes built on private Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank. If this trend continues it will mean the end of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and less US influence in the Muslim world.
One very clear direction of Mr Trump’s foreign policy is his hardline attitude towards Iran. White House National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is particularly fixated with Teheran, and the Trump administration has already imposed new sanctions on the country following its recent ballistic missile test. While caution is needed when dealing with Iran, any unnecessary hostility by Washington will only boost the hardliners in the country’s presidential election this year, and could put the nuclear accord at risk.
In other policy areas such as defence ties with South Korea and Japan, the Trump administration seems, at least so far, to have adopted a common sense approach. And on China, President Trump appears to have toned down his past rhetoric, agreed to honour the so-called ‘One China’ policy and saying that he wanted “constructive” relations for the benefit of both countries.
How should Europe respond to the Trump presidency? First of all, Europe’s leaders must make a huge effort to convince internationalists in the Trump administration, such as Defence Secretary James Mattis, and in Congress, such as Republican Senator John McCain, to use their influence with Mr Trump to persuade the President that the US-Europe partnership is in the interest of both sides.
At the same time, Nato’s European countries must promise to pay their fair share on defence spending while the EU must urge the US not to lift its sanctions on Russia, which were imposed due to Moscow’s behaviour in Ukraine, as this would send the wrong message to President Putin.
While engaging in a constructive dialogue with the Trump administration, Europe must also prepare for the possibility of an inward-looking US, which means it must remain united and integrate further where it makes sense to do so. The EU as a bloc is the only way Europe can deal with the many challenges it is now facing, in particular the threats posed by a resurgent Russia and jihadist terrorism.
Europe will also need to strengthen its ties with countries like Australia, Canada, India, Japan and the Latin American bloc, as well as China.