Barack Obama’s presidency in the US is coming to an end and journalists, historians and political scientists will now start defining and analysing his legacy. On the domestic front (unlike in foreign policy) a US President can only achieve so much – America is a federal system where many decisions are taken at the state level – and at the national level there is a clear separation of the executive (the White House) and the legislature (Congress).
If the President’s party does not control Congress then this makes it difficult for the administration to have laws passed, and in Obama’s eight-year presidency, the Republicans controlled the House of Representatives for the past six years and Senate for the past two years. However, Obama did manage to accomplish a lot during his terms in office, both at home and in foreign policy. For what it’s worth, this is how I would grade Obama’s legacy on a scale from one to 10.
Being presidential: If there’s one thing Obama excelled at it was being presidential. He rose to the occasion whenever a tragedy or crisis occurred, he always made a special effort to be the President of all Americans, he and his family conducted themselves with grace and dignity and he refused to respond in kind when he was the target of some very unfair, cruel and personal criticism. Score: 10 / 10
Good governance: Obama’s administration was clean and scandal-free, both as regards his own presidency as well as his Cabinet members and top aids. Rarely has a US administration had such a good record in this area. Score: 10 /10
The economy: It is important to keep in mind the economic situation that Obama inherited when he took office. In January 2009, the country was in the worst recession since the Great Depression, the economy was on the verge of collapse, unemployment was at 7.8 per cent, the financial and car industries were in a terrible state and many people had lost their homes.
Obama saved the economy through a stimulus programme, bailed out General Motors and Chrysler, presided over impressive job creation (11.3 million jobs and a 4.7 per cent jobless rate), as well as modest economic growth, financial reform laws and help for homeowners.
The main minuses of Obama’s economic record is that household income has not improved since 2007 and that the manufacturing sector in some states has continued to decline – and this was the reason a number of ‘rust belt’ states voted for Donald Trump in November’s election. But when one compares the economy today to the one Obama inherited, his record in this sector is excellent. Score: 9 / 10
Foreign policy: Obama has had a number of foreign policy achievements. The Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate change agreement are massive accomplishments which if not derailed by the incoming Trump administration will make the world a much safer place. The normalisation of diplomatic ties with Cuba is also a major feat. Obama’s response to Russia’s behaviour in Ukraine – imposing sanctions on Moscow – was the correct thing to do in a very delicate situation.
The Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate change agreement are massive accomplishments
Obama was firmly committed to Nato, internationalism, multilateral engagement and the international rule of law and during his term in office the US was widely respected around the globe. In the fight against Islamic State Obama managed to put together an international coalition and a multi-faceted approach which has clearly produced results, even though it will take a long time for IS to be defeated.
On the other hand, Obama did not adequately plan for the aftermath of the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, he did not stick to his ‘red line’ pledge when chemical weapons were used in Syria, he ran out of options on how to confront Russia’s support for the Assad regime in Syria and he failed to pressure Israel to be more flexible in dealing with the Palestinians. Like his predecessors, he did not manage to stop North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, although it has to be said that his options were extremely limited. Score: 8 / 10.
Homeland security: Under Obama, not one terrorist attack orchestrated from abroad took place in the US. The terrorist attacks that did take place in the US were the work of ‘lone wolves’ who were either US citizens or legal residents who become self-radicalised. Score: 9 / 10
Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act or ‘Obamacare’, a massive piece of legislation introduced in Obama’s first term in office, greatly decreased the percentage of Americans without health insurance, from 15.7 per cent to 9.1 per cent, and as a result 20 million previously uninsured Americans were now covered. The law was controversial, however, as premiums in some cases were very high and the Obamacare website was inoperative for a number of months. Whatever the criticism, the situation is certainly better that it was eight years ago. Score: 7 / 10
Environment: Obama’s record on the environment is excellent. He took strong domestic action and forged an agreement with China to help bring about the Paris Climate Agreement, he invested $90 billion in renewable technology and clean transportation and designated eight wind energy areas off the Atlantic Coast which have the potential to power six million households. Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline, stopped the Dakota Access Pipeline, permanently protected the Arctic and parts of the Atlantic from offshore drilling and placed restrictions on mercury and other toxic pollution at power plants. His Clean Water Rule restored protection to half the country’s streams, which help provide drinking water for 117 million Americans. Obama also designated 548 million acres of territory as protected habitat. Score: 9 / 10
Trade: Obama’s legacy on trade deals is not one of his success stories. His ambition to see two major trade agreements, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, entering into force by the time he leaves office went nowhere. The TPP, opposed by both the left and right, including Donald Trump, was not even considered by Congress. And the TTIP, which aims to reduce trade barriers between the US and the EU, is being abandoned by politicians in both blocs. He did, however, preside over the entering into force of free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama in 2012, which were important achievements. Score: 4 / 10
Crime: Over the past eight years violent crime rates declined, with the exception of a number of large cities like Chicago, which have witnessed an increase in murder rates. In the area of criminal justice reform Obama accomplished little, although having a Republican-controlled Congress for much of his term in office didn’t help. Last year, however, Obama introduced a number of executive actions to reduce the use of solitary confinement in federal prisons and to provide better treatment for prisoners with mental health problems. To his great disappointment, Obama was unable to introduce gun control measures, due to Republican opposition in Congress. Score: 6 / 10
Immigration: Once again opposition from Republicans made legislation on immigration reform impossible. Obama was forced to take a number of executive actions which regularised the status of illegal immigrants such as undocumented immigrants who entered the US as children as well as immigrant families of US citizens and permanent residents.
In a ruling last June, however, the Supreme Court upheld an appeals court ruling blocking Obama’s plan to prevent up to five million undocumented immigrants from deportation and allowing them to legally work in the US. Score: 6 / 10.
Bridging the partisan divide: Obama was unable to reach out to the Republicans who controlled Congress for much of his term in office. Unlike Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton, who managed to get their political opponents controlling Congress to pass major pieces of legislation, Obama failed in this regard. Of course, during Obama’s presidency, the Republicans clear strategy was not to cooperate with the President, so it is difficult to imagine what else he could have done. However, although Obama is intelligent, charismatic, polite and respectful towards his opponents, he is not a power-broker or a deal-maker, as was Lyndon Johnson, for example, and this is partly why he was unable to make inroads with the Republicans. Score: 3 / 10.
On the whole, I think it is entirely fair to say that Barack Obama’s legacy is a great one, and it is not surprising that he leaves office with a record high approval rating of 57 per cent. He will be missed.